M2 · Champion relationship workbench
2022–2026 professional matches · full bottom duos · cross-role relationships · ranked calibration
Updated through: 2026-10-14T20:19:37.212898+00:00
4 new games have GoL internal validation and secondary played-lineup corroboration; full independent BP checks remain pending and source conflicts are retained.
S15 / S16 teams: pre-Worlds lane draft priorities
All champions: damage composition and stage profiles
Matchup advantage: one coefficient
Advanced metrics and historical references
Separate choice tendencies from performance
| Champion / locked ally | Related champion | Adjusted association | Real count / ESS | Context | Evidence |
|---|
Chronological validation and coverage
S15 Worlds is an 84-game retrospective test; completed post-June 2026 games test frozen choices. Series do not cross training/test. Current 26.20 ranked data never enter S15 tests.
| Target | S15 MAE / log loss | 2026 MAE / log loss | Tuned baseline | Half-life | Historical ranked weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| outcome | 0.624 (N=84) | 0.652 (N=937) | 0.652 | 730 | 0 |
| top/10/cs | 7.979 (N=84) | 9.494 (N=855) | 9.540 | 730 | 0 |
| top/10/gold | 271.653 (N=84) | 384.968 (N=855) | 384.968 | 730 | 0 |
| top/10/xp | 335.491 (N=84) | 352.151 (N=855) | 352.151 | 730 | 0 |
| top/15/cs | 12.282 (N=84) | 13.962 (N=854) | 14.010 | 730 | 0 |
| top/15/gold | 503.585 (N=84) | 696.449 (N=866) | 696.449 | 730 | 0 |
| top/15/xp | 610.011 (N=84) | 701.557 (N=839) | 701.557 | 730 | 0 |
| top/20/cs | 16.002 (N=84) | 17.523 (N=855) | 17.555 | 730 | 0 |
| top/20/gold | 772.040 (N=84) | 945.628 (N=855) | 946.146 | 730 | 0 |
| top/20/xp | 852.488 (N=84) | 1000.008 (N=855) | 1000.057 | 730 | 0 |
| top/25/cs | 17.458 (N=84) | 19.945 (N=830) | 20.017 | 730 | 0 |
| top/25/gold | 1113.940 (N=84) | 1266.939 (N=830) | 1267.570 | 730 | 0 |
| top/25/xp | 1411.030 (N=84) | 1532.141 (N=830) | 1532.315 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/10/cs | 6.555 (N=84) | 7.470 (N=855) | 7.470 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/10/gold | 295.460 (N=84) | 362.969 (N=855) | 362.436 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/10/xp | 289.913 (N=84) | 342.815 (N=855) | 342.815 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/15/cs | 10.619 (N=84) | 11.906 (N=851) | 11.906 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/15/gold | 452.486 (N=84) | 581.597 (N=904) | 581.597 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/15/xp | 505.066 (N=84) | 650.737 (N=845) | 650.737 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/20/cs | 14.543 (N=84) | 15.857 (N=855) | 15.857 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/20/gold | 673.974 (N=84) | 906.725 (N=855) | 905.333 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/20/xp | 702.662 (N=84) | 982.319 (N=855) | 981.548 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/25/cs | 19.155 (N=84) | 21.286 (N=830) | 21.286 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/25/gold | 1092.317 (N=84) | 1334.574 (N=830) | 1333.926 | 730 | 0 |
| jng/25/xp | 1416.903 (N=84) | 1587.861 (N=830) | 1587.251 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/10/cs | 7.191 (N=84) | 8.161 (N=855) | 8.164 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/10/gold | 264.619 (N=84) | 362.713 (N=855) | 363.195 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/10/xp | 302.873 (N=84) | 312.417 (N=855) | 312.257 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/15/cs | 10.558 (N=84) | 11.539 (N=852) | 11.559 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/15/gold | 511.148 (N=84) | 610.006 (N=870) | 610.351 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/15/xp | 494.529 (N=84) | 526.635 (N=834) | 526.387 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/20/cs | 12.306 (N=84) | 15.308 (N=855) | 15.313 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/20/gold | 686.924 (N=84) | 870.317 (N=855) | 870.750 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/20/xp | 668.023 (N=84) | 814.419 (N=855) | 814.373 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/25/cs | 16.850 (N=84) | 19.070 (N=830) | 19.070 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/25/gold | 1256.062 (N=84) | 1293.800 (N=830) | 1293.800 | 730 | 0 |
| mid/25/xp | 1245.679 (N=84) | 1345.546 (N=830) | 1345.546 | 730 | 0 |
| bot_duo/10/cs | 9.452 (N=84) | 10.223 (N=855) | 10.223 | 45 | 0 |
| bot_duo/10/gold | 402.856 (N=84) | 558.661 (N=855) | 558.661 | 730 | 0 |
| bot_duo/10/xp | 429.097 (N=84) | 429.444 (N=855) | 429.444 | 730 | 0 |
| bot_duo/15/cs | 12.927 (N=84) | 14.788 (N=855) | 14.788 | 45 | 0 |
| bot_duo/15/gold | 750.447 (N=84) | 987.280 (N=835) | 987.280 | 730 | 0 |
| bot_duo/15/xp | 608.459 (N=84) | 718.753 (N=845) | 719.223 | 730 | 0 |
| bot_duo/20/cs | 15.044 (N=84) | 17.506 (N=855) | 17.506 | 45 | 0 |
| bot_duo/20/gold | 1206.844 (N=84) | 1432.001 (N=855) | 1434.334 | 730 | 0 |
| bot_duo/20/xp | 913.336 (N=84) | 1012.164 (N=855) | 1012.164 | 730 | 0 |
| bot_duo/25/cs | 17.845 (N=84) | 20.512 (N=830) | 20.512 | 45 | 0 |
| bot_duo/25/gold | 1746.706 (N=84) | 2048.441 (N=830) | 2047.177 | 730 | 0 |
| bot_duo/25/xp | 2125.869 (N=84) | 1966.791 (N=830) | 1966.791 | 730 | 0 |
Coverage does not mean every value is independently confirmed: 2022–2024 primarily use the original professional source; 2025–2026 also have GoL comparisons. Six games lack complete player stats and two have lineup conflicts, excluded from relationship fitting. Missing timepoints stay null; disputed lane labels are masked only for their affected targets.
Downloads and reproduction
Separate raw OP.GG reference · Earlier professional experiments
M1/M3 predictions and coefficients are preserved. This module supplies relationship evidence for later draft queries, not a live next-action predictor.