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730, "ridge": 80, "relations": true, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0, "selection": { "n": 496, "mae": 1.987253476470345, "rmse": 2.4494749885030194 } }, { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": true, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0.35, "selection": { "n": 496, "mae": 1.9869991728601946, "rmse": 2.449217934197894 } } ], "selected": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": false, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0 }, "s15_worlds": { "n": 84, "mae": 2125.8688987985647, "rmse": 2628.549286075459 }, "s16_holdout": { "n": 830, "mae": 1966.7907362188864, "rmse": 2447.166856105085 }, "s16_baseline": { "n": 830, "mae": 1966.7907362188864, "rmse": 2447.166856105085 }, "baseline_selected": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80 }, "calibration_n": 114, "prediction_interval_90_half_width": 4889.181279663667, "s15_interval_coverage": 0.9166666666666666, "s16_interval_coverage": 0.9578313253012049 } }, "protocol": "Grouped chronological series: train < 2025-07-01; selection July–14 September; calibration 15 September–13 October; S15 Worlds retrospective holdout. Frozen choices retested on Jul–13 Oct 2026 after fit through June. Final fit all completed by 2026-10-14.", "historical_ranked_population": "KR Challenger-seeded 2,493 matches; all participant tiers not verified. Current OP.GG Master+ never enters historical tests.", "current_ranked_lane_weight": 0, "current_ranked_lane_reason": "26.20 OP.GG provides game wins, not timepoint CS/gold/XP; no invented unit conversion.", "weights": { "event_importance": "Worlds 2; MSI 1.8; EWC 1.4; First Stand 1.3; regional qualification 1.45; playoffs 1.35; DCGI/KeSPA .75; promotion .4; ordinary 1", "strength": "exp(.8 * clip((mean strictly pre-match Elo-1500)/400,-1,1))", "event_balance": "event games^(-.25)", "first_game": 1.4, "patch_decay": ".01 per normalized patch-distance for structural relations (separate from M1 patch-response model)", "selected_decay": "45/365/730 days chosen using professional chronological selection, not current hero expectations" }, "ranked_outcome_calibration": { "selected_weight": 0.35, "trials": [ { "weight": 0, "validation": { "n": 148, "log_loss": 0.6449677030106813, "brier": 0.22657708308795313 } }, { "weight": 0.05, "validation": { "n": 148, "log_loss": 0.6449600785030124, "brier": 0.226578152429842 } }, { "weight": 0.1, "validation": { "n": 148, "log_loss": 0.6449529301370679, "brier": 0.22657941430345713 } }, { "weight": 0.2, "validation": { "n": 148, "log_loss": 0.6449400619432447, "brier": 0.22658251606534832 } }, { "weight": 0.35, "validation": { "n": 148, "log_loss": 0.644924331357204, "brier": 0.22658861523764778 } } ], "reference": "strictly pre-2025-07-01 KR Challenger-seeded outcome residuals", "current_reference": "OP.GG KR Master+ 26.20; only forward-facing outcome advisory, never lane metric conversion or historical input.", "bottom_policy": "No ADC-plus-support sum. Current OP.GG has no complete four-hero duo data; ranked outcome advisory restricted to top/mid/jungle.", "limits": [ "Ranked participant tiers unknown in historical calibration; transfer to current Master+ is a sensitivity estimate, not proven equality of populations.", "Whole-game outcome residual after ranked single-hero baselines; observational, not causal." ], "s15_worlds": { "n": 84, "log_loss": 0.6255924791524201, "brier": 0.2182110102627457 }, "s16_holdout": { "n": 937, "log_loss": 0.6520259560974705, "brier": 0.23074021145552928 } }, "current_forecast_refresh": { "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-14T20:19:37.212898+00:00", "games": 13655, "fit_operations": 49, "hyperparameter_searches": 0, "labels_by_target": { "outcome": 13655, "top/10/cs": 10201, "top/10/gold": 10201, "top/10/xp": 10201, "top/15/cs": 10185, "top/15/gold": 10886, "top/15/xp": 10090, "top/20/cs": 10190, "top/20/gold": 10190, "top/20/xp": 10190, "top/25/cs": 9772, "top/25/gold": 9772, "top/25/xp": 9772, "jng/10/cs": 10201, "jng/10/gold": 10201, "jng/10/xp": 10201, "jng/15/cs": 10187, "jng/15/gold": 11025, "jng/15/xp": 10148, "jng/20/cs": 10190, "jng/20/gold": 10190, "jng/20/xp": 10190, "jng/25/cs": 9772, "jng/25/gold": 9772, "jng/25/xp": 9772, "mid/10/cs": 10201, "mid/10/gold": 10201, "mid/10/xp": 10201, "mid/15/cs": 10183, "mid/15/gold": 10887, "mid/15/xp": 10079, "mid/20/cs": 10190, "mid/20/gold": 10190, "mid/20/xp": 10190, "mid/25/cs": 9772, "mid/25/gold": 9772, "mid/25/xp": 9772, "bot_duo/10/cs": 10201, "bot_duo/10/gold": 10201, "bot_duo/10/xp": 10201, "bot_duo/15/cs": 10197, "bot_duo/15/gold": 10793, "bot_duo/15/xp": 10085, "bot_duo/20/cs": 10190, "bot_duo/20/gold": 10190, "bot_duo/20/xp": 10190, "bot_duo/25/cs": 9772, "bot_duo/25/gold": 9772, "bot_duo/25/xp": 9772 }, "selected_settings": { "outcome": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": true, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0.35 }, "top/10/cs": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": true, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0 }, 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45, "ridge": 20, "relations": false, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0 }, "bot_duo/15/gold": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": false, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0 }, "bot_duo/15/xp": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": true, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0.35 }, "bot_duo/20/cs": { "half_life": 45, "ridge": 20, "relations": false, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0 }, "bot_duo/20/gold": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": true, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0.35 }, "bot_duo/20/xp": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": false, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0 }, "bot_duo/25/cs": { "half_life": 45, "ridge": 20, "relations": false, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0 }, "bot_duo/25/gold": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": true, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0.35 }, "bot_duo/25/xp": { "half_life": 730, "ridge": 80, "relations": false, "rank_weight": 0, "latent_mix": 0 } }, "historical_scores_preserved": true, "calibration_intervals_preserved": true } }