{
  "kind": "shared temporal residual coefficients and hierarchical adaptation hyperparameters; no S16 prediction",
  "features": [
    "baseline_probability",
    "recent14_rate",
    "recent45_rate",
    "season_rate",
    "recent_minus_baseline",
    "recent_squared",
    "baseline_squared",
    "qualified_rate",
    "champion_ban_rate",
    "champion_pick_rate",
    "early_pick_fraction",
    "early_ban_fraction",
    "role_share",
    "flex_entropy",
    "numeric_patch",
    "mechanism_patch",
    "system_patch",
    "positive_patch_saturation",
    "patch_x_low_frequency",
    "attack_range",
    "recent_role_partner_strength",
    "qualified_team_coverage"
  ],
  "ridge": 0.03,
  "residual_blend": 0.75,
  "position_blend": 0.5,
  "tau_frequency": 20,
  "tau_position": 30,
  "historical_split_score": 5.1721093159086085,
  "role_models": [
    {
      "mean": [
        0.011695906432748534,
        0.011695906432748556,
        0.011695906432748518,
        0.011695906432748536,
        2.3892243130833597e-19,
        0.0019412798484962671,
        0.0018059862241358044,
        0.011695906432748515,
        0.058557929538048656,
        0.05852933117774167,
        0.5703432068860596,
        0.4788847380812456,
        0.23604454133250308,
        0.310026447044114,
        -1.276299559703141e-05,
        0.0,
        -6.43175669412643e-06,
        7.705893335365037e-05,
        2.9448089335184222e-05,
        0.5088169140800676,
        0.05771441746563177,
        0.06822742595076157
      ],
      "std": [
        0.040855746191352224,
        0.042479237530971256,
        0.04183434149395248,
        0.039145121801111286,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.04355311601157232,
        0.1097583620739988,
        0.0844219883059997,
        0.12372997440313042,
        0.23259138300434354,
        0.34993938550333686,
        0.3632974707977533,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.2983346193714093,
        0.10600979510657763,
        0.2005233107619358
      ],
      "coef": [
        5.294427526046876e-17,
        -3.289231122448501e-05,
        0.0027153406975559706,
        -0.0028133194145893523,
        -0.000747653507930242,
        0.004667577695520732,
        -0.0038432141826692354,
        -0.004740878717359175,
        0.0003346273391393718,
        0.000417405542529256,
        -0.0007123503389430074,
        -0.0005560041524178492,
        -0.0004733535703234354,
        0.00044288719468949694,
        -0.0004702720608835352,
        0.00015886839995113877,
        0.0,
        2.4522759221763237e-05,
        0.002895311385381145,
        0.0011064439205067322,
        -0.0002381929217150374,
        -0.0005216895081456268,
        0.0021754208052047717
      ]
    },
    {
      "mean": [
        0.011695906432748572,
        0.011695906432748544,
        0.011695906432748539,
        0.011695906432748565,
        -3.037026706212943e-19,
        0.002176715857979858,
        0.0020357614597215213,
        0.011695906432748529,
        0.058557929538048656,
        0.05852933117774167,
        0.6010914908868761,
        0.4788847380812456,
        0.19761230149902703,
        0.310026447044114,
        -6.385275104611827e-05,
        6.364649057115081e-06,
        0.0,
        0.00034776130203377937,
        0.0008604086618820238,
        0.5088169140800676,
        0.04033810265004889,
        0.0649543748920258
      ],
      "std": [
        0.04357714116871274,
        0.04516549159143816,
        0.04444756895669955,
        0.041132715853446244,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.045550537107781605,
        0.1097583620739988,
        0.0844219883059997,
        0.10322093937483959,
        0.23259138300434354,
        0.33285343845895543,
        0.3632974707977533,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.050634148552613244,
        0.2983346193714093,
        0.09506366931382208,
        0.2051099105913638
      ],
      "coef": [
        -3.695959973678727e-17,
        0.001063127242323903,
        0.004645364283090456,
        -0.0038490936503365464,
        -0.005395302253559052,
        0.006539284621921276,
        -0.002379611929394635,
        -0.004623919592831027,
        -0.0013863709776119153,
        0.0017312350708958452,
        -0.0012498688181285847,
        0.0004049669239520017,
        -0.0014308062273470717,
        -4.781112970166292e-05,
        0.0004870565388674559,
        0.002767032884385503,
        0.0010132720889184025,
        0.0,
        5.1795504274179523e-05,
        -0.00014214889084442054,
        -0.0005334621040059885,
        0.002600831593915696,
        0.003002408276054805
      ]
    },
    {
      "mean": [
        0.011695906432748534,
        0.011698246886674396,
        0.01170000886971109,
        0.011709326389257185,
        2.3404539258598425e-06,
        0.001953027897476623,
        0.0018089476977259048,
        0.011699785549244458,
        0.058557929538048656,
        0.05852933117774167,
        0.5794444863331955,
        0.4788847380812456,
        0.20475024402923084,
        0.310026447044114,
        5.022561455602136e-05,
        6.119854862610654e-07,
        -1.0719594490210716e-05,
        0.0003873205908416452,
        0.0009364135287647252,
        0.5088169140800676,
        0.05319723111727382,
        0.06916714870864457
      ],
      "std": [
        0.040891973178636035,
        0.04261665070433169,
        0.04187753329542958,
        0.03814818469028252,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.04318284643313366,
        0.1097583620739988,
        0.0844219883059997,
        0.11296465736553739,
        0.23259138300434354,
        0.3302411122086583,
        0.3632974707977533,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.054002456454245076,
        0.2983346193714093,
        0.10904527753063192,
        0.2060653079539015
      ],
      "coef": [
        -2.838729189652131e-18,
        0.0005233719653377278,
        0.0033894256288791048,
        -0.0013112933889610537,
        -0.004885542766641876,
        0.004921770229808764,
        -0.0005790110875106395,
        -0.003220128599612681,
        -0.0021342629584326957,
        -0.0002791455290595451,
        -0.00037122382919154714,
        3.1571532831720985e-05,
        -0.0002838540139308939,
        0.0012390377943217595,
        -0.0005594212144951441,
        -0.000565117340697079,
        -7.787646724953752e-07,
        1.8946831826799124e-05,
        0.001671707065234668,
        -0.0008082429045513742,
        0.0003421375689814911,
        -0.0008453279817686772,
        0.004269416932291941
      ]
    },
    {
      "mean": [
        0.011695906432748544,
        0.011703710804115315,
        0.011720395999105558,
        0.011820970506734798,
        7.804371366781365e-06,
        0.0021735838422595804,
        0.0020814403516047383,
        0.011743142157976602,
        0.058557929538048656,
        0.05852933117774167,
        0.5735912001841836,
        0.4788847380812456,
        0.1678591621691239,
        0.310026447044114,
        7.515956530715445e-06,
        6.119854862610654e-07,
        0.0,
        0.00026861807435113645,
        0.00035553959603678534,
        0.5088169140800676,
        0.040760217525404784,
        0.06443052173544701
      ],
      "std": [
        0.044098141959963894,
        0.04512878234201699,
        0.0446824383077477,
        0.043494953878781634,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.046119279346349254,
        0.1097583620739988,
        0.0844219883059997,
        0.0961157855260215,
        0.23259138300434354,
        0.31052747223204474,
        0.3632974707977533,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.2983346193714093,
        0.107414035455496,
        0.20848444353316836
      ],
      "coef": [
        2.446682876208868e-16,
        0.00046986267035055993,
        0.004333530110190153,
        -0.001556167901291675,
        -0.005305734625637527,
        0.006993874655061722,
        -0.003696566538367318,
        -0.004801558862933442,
        0.0004693497431759809,
        0.0013861952940057432,
        -0.0010065117299558007,
        -0.0018213791032498723,
        -0.0006965729228410948,
        0.0005641902878302502,
        -3.2688014413546806e-06,
        0.0006380119458290693,
        -2.2786617269000747e-06,
        0.0,
        0.001165231341444804,
        -0.0005564231206327435,
        2.476308686317232e-05,
        0.0011531051925835628,
        7.130798625252175e-05
      ]
    },
    {
      "mean": [
        0.011695906432748553,
        0.011695906432748529,
        0.011695906432748537,
        0.011695906432748522,
        -4.2076506411464566e-20,
        0.0022339838583592783,
        0.00214166917159499,
        0.011695906432748534,
        0.058557929538048656,
        0.05852933117774167,
        0.5471957432559218,
        0.4788847380812456,
        0.19373375097011492,
        0.310026447044114,
        -4.276358783608794e-06,
        6.119854862610654e-07,
        -3.8555240889456446e-05,
        9.668529953198399e-05,
        0.0002138656359850429,
        0.5088169140800676,
        0.046264782417051,
        0.06413408835880366
      ],
      "std": [
        0.04477582991203377,
        0.04579508304475135,
        0.04538537772772273,
        0.04331618538506088,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.046602358009439036,
        0.1097583620739988,
        0.0844219883059997,
        0.13257657691807714,
        0.23259138300434354,
        0.3318724874108736,
        0.3632974707977533,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.2983346193714093,
        0.1056722677034741,
        0.20221898898861893
      ],
      "coef": [
        3.894465736774962e-18,
        -0.0007977529210039217,
        0.0014332742100566112,
        0.00017958333191040482,
        0.002110692858638159,
        0.004054278423126248,
        -0.0020783548024861332,
        -0.004774585098979831,
        -0.004462895473455362,
        0.00014235405156378192,
        -0.00019719783592070186,
        2.0994208977173754e-05,
        -0.00034064924442966563,
        0.00030423884338851156,
        -0.00011987006566513785,
        -0.00044056567221314975,
        -5.92233825048662e-08,
        0.000544105257385087,
        -9.612234745108149e-06,
        -2.0951904508353413e-05,
        -0.00018088281200278282,
        -0.000307414192159435,
        0.0029183856090491396
      ]
    },
    {
      "mean": [
        0.058479532163742645,
        0.0584658150616689,
        0.058557929538048656,
        0.058445805731748034,
        -1.3717102073837426e-05,
        0.016443884620963516,
        0.01609304709796223,
        0.058557929538048656,
        0.058557929538048656,
        0.05852933117774167,
        0.6496820210560814,
        0.4788847380812456,
        0.7895905947255792,
        0.310026447044114,
        1.474935553860697e-05,
        4.380955980718191e-06,
        -4.195418878786368e-05,
        0.0010948170745199914,
        0.0023956150195125264,
        0.5088169140800676,
        0.1943676903883588,
        0.3073717595283147
      ],
      "std": [
        0.11257527000132894,
        0.11412989568968432,
        0.1097583620739988,
        0.10325724064422268,
        0.025,
        0.05880859301821734,
        0.05897764866343243,
        0.1097583620739988,
        0.1097583620739988,
        0.0844219883059997,
        0.09939520630923968,
        0.23259138300434354,
        0.29355962822561993,
        0.3632974707977533,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.03202465421992801,
        0.08407153371809309,
        0.2983346193714093,
        0.14124567921935366,
        0.35845979202838074
      ],
      "coef": [
        -1.4420676655816847e-05,
        -0.006196011132800116,
        -0.0012370694001324304,
        -0.008534177124859293,
        -0.0030251369118625368,
        0.02225324098432767,
        0.010274391031768642,
        -0.0015281751271814083,
        -0.008534177124859266,
        -0.008534177124859281,
        0.00540537405541815,
        0.0034425842830314458,
        0.002803260990899681,
        -0.00010105552458998696,
        0.0013869717887162625,
        0.006007542389002416,
        -1.3979779556566922e-05,
        -0.002179387862543971,
        0.0018992674851361544,
        -0.0018671675594532536,
        0.00039099760778855004,
        0.004145958958326026,
        0.011155289816261446
      ]
    }
  ],
  "position_models": [
    {
      "mean": [
        0.14848827134357853,
        0.15212330416040587,
        0.14970179311882637,
        0.13534195569992302,
        0.0036350328168273825,
        0.03254806829410598,
        0.03030520091952727,
        0.1544574195534824,
        0.15863406170551822,
        0.15954957124944405,
        0.6574026398315987,
        0.5718780394839432,
        0.9080399684743943,
        0.09334086137241601,
        7.989378403802487e-05,
        0.0,
        -1.0966200459701928e-05,
        0.001478094118564804,
        0.0005648540117931026,
        0.25485488792485667,
        0.30497994694259384,
        0.6938262208452787
      ],
      "std": [
        0.09086492278609543,
        0.09698746633161741,
        0.09399491742514379,
        0.08160825710521052,
        0.025996379025586474,
        0.03378293736318056,
        0.03058595627176424,
        0.10393315790313497,
        0.14083378056042073,
        0.09015035482259018,
        0.23137319031418455,
        0.28867989647853076,
        0.2168444039776435,
        0.14563789440115113,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.03407405032875655,
        0.025,
        0.1396913542198397,
        0.06842899060714965,
        0.2962372861656472
      ],
      "coef": [
        0.29535934128451174,
        -0.4014196687704838,
        -0.38394950949758144,
        0.07078890962957944,
        0.13542352821228343,
        -0.029362663047734133,
        0.13836063436527635,
        0.26643399335793794,
        -0.15661923551380832,
        -0.1299065690179479,
        -0.13375965769068954,
        0.4365331508199246,
        0.007260390499892092,
        0.08908086620739143,
        0.07446032795411199,
        -0.00573891514111219,
        0.0,
        -0.009996185333128224,
        -0.0778995858592232,
        -0.04057448623606024,
        0.009562035213518384,
        -0.32085243866280627,
        0.05676656105555669
      ]
    },
    {
      "mean": [
        0.1651620778041459,
        0.17001603269582546,
        0.16637506941305097,
        0.14335102871193162,
        0.0048539548916799475,
        0.039463369905696724,
        0.036556375169830686,
        0.16710694893025152,
        0.17964375244780137,
        0.16937127242654224,
        0.7999197716362505,
        0.6324060114998071,
        0.9373463931071998,
        0.0832314591084228,
        -0.0002490667507342188,
        8.264048883101273e-05,
        0.0,
        0.0003694133892773102,
        0.0011853972555682692,
        0.27165749081130186,
        0.3092920885546829,
        0.7300117739840277
      ],
      "std": [
        0.09632166539905752,
        0.10275173250154311,
        0.09895520729963724,
        0.08950143620704343,
        0.027614662831013236,
        0.0378468164420599,
        0.03465109878198235,
        0.10276118310535828,
        0.1709002433759741,
        0.09210319038372422,
        0.18586485057894764,
        0.254910770427009,
        0.1650861094180524,
        0.16396762838677045,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.06512863665770219,
        0.12914282450526524,
        0.06979415219552947,
        0.28706642535137755
      ],
      "coef": [
        0.16409167395273105,
        -0.5026562734312355,
        -0.4813240407840129,
        0.18969963073824897,
        0.39116448027856476,
        -0.037668021202605075,
        0.167721896731594,
        0.42863260377923773,
        -0.44298484373289676,
        -0.17970887348402076,
        -0.01865810448369147,
        0.012927744941686747,
        0.28860743632551183,
        -0.10773615397697957,
        -0.16762363737171726,
        0.08125133755811084,
        -0.1643549371103463,
        0.0,
        0.04643379420833627,
        0.005256104186008382,
        -0.07510713317376205,
        -0.04713547987586542,
        -0.1664439937370974
      ]
    },
    {
      "mean": [
        0.15110849442270682,
        0.15588775853527925,
        0.1527851763550064,
        0.13131972696600544,
        0.0047792641125724514,
        0.03252173627295156,
        0.02972586531040149,
        0.154335169619823,
        0.15061824015026373,
        0.16291552002156298,
        0.6975353173046203,
        0.6029256143855479,
        0.90293015667914,
        0.10826097127688909,
        0.00022957794507601578,
        0.0,
        -0.00010509275440547681,
        0.002016731679575957,
        0.0029264245419824385,
        0.709424290524659,
        0.33930329598844344,
        0.7224613340695049
      ],
      "std": [
        0.08301860167278355,
        0.09066831316285809,
        0.08661386300937331,
        0.06853803458747669,
        0.02608198190226108,
        0.02978318309190836,
        0.026163259303123552,
        0.09322742536701481,
        0.10945674983032454,
        0.08253393076036103,
        0.18945550129970662,
        0.24149047868267437,
        0.20092953166172295,
        0.16504112536025758,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.04433062703065063,
        0.06463291565713122,
        0.2464168952312932,
        0.0817832937117232,
        0.2872112555481722
      ],
      "coef": [
        -0.15944516146265936,
        -0.34639110234428955,
        -0.31206997408874476,
        0.0979056395531157,
        0.2214202888778775,
        0.017715172521984516,
        0.2134718488667322,
        0.09513493212608692,
        -0.30845615091568096,
        -0.17075756864924227,
        -0.2325824207868181,
        0.4122453220168052,
        -0.06747910297627543,
        0.07851515037739665,
        0.0651044454313065,
        0.08499705310226198,
        0.0,
        -0.01705252406276262,
        0.01872579319443249,
        -0.11165681156690581,
        -0.05751885873815845,
        -0.09759218349397333,
        -0.11828948329490925
      ]
    },
    {
      "mean": [
        0.1675334060969516,
        0.17101921254727695,
        0.16861513587408034,
        0.15261634040297578,
        0.0034858064503252247,
        0.037933249033470506,
        0.036151589544189434,
        0.16994767844098183,
        0.17428079133838284,
        0.17228675150884515,
        0.49115041566152245,
        0.31342540985500705,
        0.9515245308472414,
        0.06072321609304151,
        -0.00011441200126106709,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.0007731832475168439,
        0.0006734115236537541,
        0.8382307615253622,
        0.3599989249350618,
        0.7507586905676168
      ],
      "std": [
        0.08991188678780647,
        0.0931969847858818,
        0.09191881688641355,
        0.0909095940947253,
        0.026317484253892038,
        0.03376335247648128,
        0.0320089272616675,
        0.1008330925659875,
        0.15704911650333236,
        0.09178158739718403,
        0.2138576822133562,
        0.2763242449516797,
        0.13615153409934605,
        0.12356319005392528,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.02522025143251176,
        0.025,
        0.053398383743025524,
        0.07460177904386522,
        0.27628543323981475
      ],
      "coef": [
        0.08888423020998065,
        -0.2204835049146919,
        -0.22665217132738738,
        -0.005214317750503925,
        0.14172902721998273,
        -0.049366839850008365,
        0.2947683770839729,
        -0.10410377988668121,
        -0.30412156734866735,
        -0.27605444349236097,
        0.11215248526022363,
        0.5024109416536395,
        -0.10985524752550889,
        -0.09253322535526161,
        -0.04031433456654247,
        0.23990844137060024,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.02135025653617708,
        -0.03588647001421535,
        -0.08408220127846737,
        -0.19856674067691799,
        0.13582843559270438
      ]
    },
    {
      "mean": [
        0.17689340814229412,
        0.18012285726291677,
        0.17877443879401123,
        0.1683787491477366,
        0.0032294491206226635,
        0.041944132118885924,
        0.040000980078748624,
        0.1792300931371197,
        0.13726060215823005,
        0.1819888142262533,
        0.29294673658005266,
        0.16225060841673158,
        0.9525884160090653,
        0.04780248245241063,
        -7.776858753925136e-05,
        0.0,
        -0.00039425681550609733,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        0.40983807087433183,
        0.34526173926018444,
        0.7683443302026144
      ],
      "std": [
        0.09332578547514286,
        0.09746737100347382,
        0.0951061069269435,
        0.08672003470312299,
        0.025253567344464378,
        0.03495618491585138,
        0.03333623484539774,
        0.1028174754687072,
        0.09156789517693864,
        0.08913144548748651,
        0.1412565312371677,
        0.19350974200700718,
        0.1666997980899422,
        0.12813039268138382,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.025,
        0.2638233851406352,
        0.0826862665176529,
        0.2825189304828303
      ],
      "coef": [
        -0.2446445387018344,
        -0.18123056121975403,
        -0.1376669670429508,
        -0.00539158147403474,
        0.32153500375751215,
        0.13841399429072102,
        0.14095335143595808,
        0.04098003822892009,
        -0.0813716501570104,
        -0.10219757623924774,
        -0.23422870967709794,
        0.2352591036411839,
        -0.0634792542804658,
        0.06081644476285446,
        0.14466402329763547,
        0.05407537497247979,
        0.0,
        0.0361044981255748,
        0.0,
        0.0,
        -0.1211854443858743,
        0.16118945826491438,
        -0.16632473184071964
      ]
    }
  ],
  "coefficient_count": 253,
  "hero_identity_features": false,
  "worlds_labels_used_in_pre_event_model": false,
  "worlds_posterior_reusable_for_s16": false,
  "reuse_note": "Rebuild S16 historical features, patch facts, event field and role priors. Do not copy S15 per-hero posterior rates. Observed tournament adaptation requires actual games already played."
}