V4 patch and reference sensitivity
Hold ranked observations fixed while switching model patch priors.1.25 is an untrained assumption;26.19/20 use two-factor Shapley. Ranked observations already reflect patch effects, so these differences describe model-prior changes, not actual causal effects.
| Champion | V3 | Stronger patch only | V4 | Response1.0 + references | Response1.5 + references | 26.19 / pp | 26.20 / pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassiopeia | 84.839% | 84.477% | 84.649% | 85.011% | 84.272% | +2.347 | -4.074 |
| Nocturne | 72.841% | 71.145% | 71.123% | 72.818% | 69.454% | -9.221 | +0.438 |
| Vi | 66.351% | 64.483% | 64.502% | 66.368% | 62.677% | -10.142 | +0.355 |
| Olaf | 57.322% | 57.719% | 57.721% | 57.325% | 58.108% | +1.483 | +0.660 |
| Ezreal | 52.866% | 53.303% | 53.253% | 52.818% | 53.678% | +1.398 | +0.982 |
| Jarvan IV | 52.213% | 52.504% | 52.504% | 52.214% | 52.786% | +1.319 | +0.186 |
| Lee Sin | 49.915% | 50.188% | 50.605% | 50.332% | 50.871% | +1.252 | +0.167 |
| Syndra | 47.657% | 47.871% | 47.900% | 47.687% | 48.107% | +0.880 | +0.163 |
| Orianna | 45.008% | 45.201% | 45.017% | 44.825% | 45.204% | +0.806 | +0.124 |
| Qiyana | 40.772% | 40.990% | 41.220% | 41.002% | 41.432% | +1.009 | +0.126 |
| Akali | 39.373% | 39.583% | 39.736% | 39.527% | 39.941% | +0.861 | +0.629 |
| Rumble | 39.854% | 39.157% | 38.910% | 39.599% | 38.225% | -4.096 | +1.041 |
| Ryze | 38.253% | 37.748% | 37.575% | 38.076% | 37.077% | -2.664 | +0.048 |
| Lucian | 38.117% | 36.694% | 36.884% | 38.299% | 35.512% | -9.733 | +2.324 |
| Seraphine | 37.051% | 37.168% | 36.881% | 36.764% | 36.994% | +0.488 | +0.088 |
| Nautilus | 36.523% | 36.666% | 36.537% | 36.393% | 36.676% | +0.769 | +0.103 |
| Lulu | 36.021% | 36.107% | 36.037% | 35.950% | 36.121% | +0.379 | +0.035 |
| Jayce | 34.782% | 35.024% | 35.184% | 34.944% | 35.418% | +0.754 | +0.526 |
| Caitlyn | 34.032% | 34.313% | 34.310% | 34.030% | 34.583% | +0.900 | +0.632 |
| Pantheon | 32.685% | 32.859% | 32.980% | 32.807% | 33.148% | +0.800 | +0.100 |
| Naafiri | 30.657% | 30.805% | 30.818% | 30.669% | 30.961% | +0.716 | +0.062 |
| Karma | 30.827% | 30.896% | 30.735% | 30.666% | 30.802% | +0.305 | +0.024 |
| K'Sante | 30.495% | 29.824% | 29.569% | 30.233% | 28.913% | +0.653 | -4.036 |
| Gnar | 28.799% | 29.000% | 28.722% | 28.523% | 28.916% | +0.590 | +0.469 |
| Kalista | 28.292% | 28.536% | 28.550% | 28.307% | 28.787% | +0.732 | +0.076 |
| Viktor | 27.890% | 27.997% | 27.844% | 27.738% | 27.947% | +0.428 | +0.083 |
| Camille | 26.992% | 27.138% | 27.358% | 27.212% | 27.500% | +0.481 | +0.282 |
| Galio | 27.151% | 27.292% | 27.130% | 26.990% | 27.265% | +0.492 | +0.498 |
| Jhin | 26.100% | 26.340% | 26.437% | 26.197% | 26.670% | +0.639 | +0.720 |
| Bard | 26.097% | 26.178% | 26.279% | 26.199% | 26.358% | +0.347 | +0.047 |
| Skarner | 24.199% | 24.307% | 24.284% | 24.176% | 24.388% | +0.538 | +0.032 |
| Locke | 23.929% | 24.041% | 24.141% | 24.030% | 24.249% | +0.464 | +0.080 |
| Xin Zhao | 23.669% | 23.795% | 23.749% | 23.624% | 23.871% | +0.581 | +0.072 |
| Milio | 23.655% | 23.675% | 23.428% | 23.408% | 23.447% | +0.099 | -0.022 |
| Trundle | 22.697% | 22.817% | 22.750% | 22.631% | 22.867% | +0.538 | +0.089 |
| Yunara | 23.632% | 22.680% | 22.667% | 23.618% | 21.747% | +0.616 | -5.899 |
| Wukong | 22.469% | 22.580% | 22.507% | 22.396% | 22.615% | +0.530 | +0.051 |
| Poppy | 21.815% | 21.415% | 21.517% | 21.917% | 21.122% | -2.137 | +0.103 |
| Ambessa | 21.957% | 21.289% | 21.058% | 21.719% | 20.414% | +0.418 | -3.873 |
| Renata Glasc | 20.368% | 20.397% | 20.296% | 20.267% | 20.325% | +0.136 | -0.004 |
| Alistar | 19.997% | 20.041% | 19.977% | 19.933% | 20.019% | +0.280 | +0.014 |
| Ashe | 19.083% | 18.825% | 18.695% | 18.951% | 18.436% | +0.473 | -2.024 |
| Rakan | 18.330% | 18.365% | 18.236% | 18.202% | 18.270% | +0.235 | +0.006 |
| Sylas | 17.641% | 17.714% | 17.804% | 17.731% | 17.876% | +0.297 | +0.256 |
| Ahri | 17.700% | 17.759% | 17.662% | 17.603% | 17.719% | +0.249 | +0.025 |
| Renekton | 17.292% | 17.413% | 17.275% | 17.156% | 17.392% | +0.354 | +0.282 |
| Anivia | 17.242% | 17.323% | 17.247% | 17.167% | 17.324% | +0.301 | +0.098 |
| Varus | 16.899% | 17.038% | 17.032% | 16.894% | 17.167% | +0.375 | +0.016 |
| Twisted Fate | 16.163% | 16.242% | 16.188% | 16.109% | 16.264% | +0.307 | +0.084 |
| Vayne | 15.671% | 16.132% | 16.113% | 15.653% | 16.583% | +0.382 | +1.446 |
| Annie | 15.517% | 15.577% | 15.508% | 15.448% | 15.566% | +0.250 | +0.214 |
| Xayah | 15.243% | 15.381% | 15.326% | 15.189% | 15.460% | +0.378 | +0.396 |
| Ziggs | 14.182% | 14.298% | 14.250% | 14.134% | 14.362% | +0.373 | +0.257 |
| Yone | 13.538% | 13.593% | 13.806% | 13.751% | 13.860% | +0.228 | +0.037 |
| Maokai | 12.924% | 12.985% | 12.937% | 12.877% | 12.995% | +0.293 | +0.023 |
| Shen | 12.187% | 12.225% | 12.147% | 12.109% | 12.183% | +0.131 | +0.055 |
| Cho'Gath | 11.669% | 11.721% | 11.848% | 11.796% | 11.898% | +0.253 | +0.022 |
| Sivir | 11.559% | 11.666% | 11.613% | 11.506% | 11.717% | +0.281 | +0.327 |
| Neeko | 11.254% | 11.416% | 11.430% | 11.268% | 11.592% | +0.152 | +0.669 |
| Yorick | 10.723% | 10.798% | 10.656% | 10.583% | 10.728% | +0.190 | +0.200 |
| Jax | 10.612% | 10.686% | 10.614% | 10.542% | 10.685% | +0.211 | +0.175 |
| Aurora | 10.307% | 10.611% | 10.604% | 10.304% | 10.912% | +1.387 | +0.124 |
| Kai'Sa | 10.326% | 10.414% | 10.480% | 10.392% | 10.566% | +0.255 | +0.234 |
| Rell | 9.757% | 9.766% | 9.699% | 9.689% | 9.708% | +0.090 | -0.007 |
| Corki | 9.477% | 9.557% | 9.666% | 9.586% | 9.744% | +0.228 | +0.217 |
| Taliyah | 9.254% | 9.298% | 9.277% | 9.234% | 9.319% | +0.152 | +0.068 |
| Gwen | 9.250% | 9.314% | 9.220% | 9.156% | 9.281% | +0.148 | +0.183 |
| Leona | 8.743% | 8.760% | 8.694% | 8.677% | 8.710% | +0.113 | +0.003 |
| Zeri | 8.028% | 8.096% | 8.192% | 8.124% | 8.259% | +0.204 | +0.083 |
| Sejuani | 7.753% | 7.788% | 7.760% | 7.725% | 7.794% | +0.174 | +0.014 |
| Miss Fortune | 7.289% | 7.356% | 7.353% | 7.287% | 7.418% | +0.179 | +0.199 |
| Ornn | 7.230% | 7.281% | 7.207% | 7.158% | 7.256% | +0.138 | +0.125 |
| Lissandra | 6.694% | 6.717% | 6.747% | 6.724% | 6.769% | +0.092 | +0.091 |
| Kled | 6.097% | 6.139% | 6.127% | 6.084% | 6.168% | +0.130 | +0.096 |
| Shyvana | 6.061% | 6.093% | 6.123% | 6.091% | 6.154% | +0.137 | +0.031 |
| LeBlanc | 5.978% | 5.998% | 6.099% | 6.079% | 6.120% | +0.088 | +0.010 |
| Aphelios | 5.133% | 5.326% | 5.530% | 5.338% | 5.728% | +0.769 | +0.166 |
| Tristana | 5.228% | 5.264% | 5.427% | 5.392% | 5.461% | +0.097 | +0.091 |
| Sion | 5.375% | 5.414% | 5.338% | 5.301% | 5.375% | +0.090 | +0.109 |
| Aatrox | 5.053% | 5.205% | 5.265% | 5.114% | 5.420% | +0.639 | +0.069 |
| Yuumi | 5.009% | 5.019% | 4.983% | 4.973% | 4.992% | +0.043 | +0.002 |
| Gragas | 4.786% | 4.819% | 4.946% | 4.913% | 4.978% | +0.082 | +0.133 |
| Zaahen | 4.756% | 4.786% | 4.801% | 4.772% | 4.830% | +0.097 | +0.059 |
| Thresh | 4.501% | 4.506% | 4.529% | 4.523% | 4.534% | +0.046 | -0.002 |
| Dr. Mundo | 4.343% | 4.371% | 4.337% | 4.309% | 4.364% | +0.073 | +0.076 |
| Mel | 4.203% | 4.239% | 4.224% | 4.188% | 4.259% | +0.104 | +0.098 |
| Jinx | 3.795% | 3.832% | 3.861% | 3.825% | 3.896% | +0.090 | +0.074 |
| Lux | 3.774% | 3.783% | 3.777% | 3.768% | 3.785% | +0.038 | +0.003 |
| Kennen | 3.577% | 3.629% | 3.666% | 3.613% | 3.718% | +0.065 | +0.230 |
| Pyke | 3.013% | 3.022% | 3.044% | 3.036% | 3.052% | +0.035 | +0.004 |
| Volibear | 2.835% | 2.907% | 2.915% | 2.844% | 2.987% | +0.319 | +0.026 |
| Nami | 2.858% | 2.861% | 2.848% | 2.844% | 2.851% | +0.015 | -0.002 |
| Vex | 2.680% | 2.689% | 2.705% | 2.696% | 2.714% | +0.036 | +0.006 |
| Azir | 2.557% | 2.567% | 2.552% | 2.543% | 2.561% | +0.040 | +0.005 |
| Nasus | 2.564% | 2.543% | 2.545% | 2.566% | 2.524% | -0.141 | +0.040 |
| Hwei | 2.370% | 2.378% | 2.353% | 2.345% | 2.360% | +0.028 | +0.009 |
| Senna | 2.299% | 2.318% | 2.317% | 2.298% | 2.336% | +0.057 | +0.048 |
| Kog'Maw | 1.895% | 1.911% | 1.903% | 1.887% | 1.918% | +0.049 | +0.015 |
| Kha'Zix | 1.705% | 1.791% | 1.886% | 1.801% | 1.976% | +0.393 | -0.002 |
| Xerath | 1.683% | 1.698% | 1.684% | 1.669% | 1.698% | +0.040 | +0.042 |
| Swain | 1.472% | 1.496% | 1.546% | 1.521% | 1.570% | +0.029 | +0.093 |
| Malphite | 1.541% | 1.552% | 1.543% | 1.533% | 1.553% | +0.026 | +0.027 |
| Garen | 1.502% | 1.513% | 1.504% | 1.494% | 1.514% | +0.026 | +0.028 |
| Nidalee | 1.314% | 1.322% | 1.375% | 1.367% | 1.383% | +0.034 | +0.008 |
| Tahm Kench | 1.320% | 1.369% | 1.358% | 1.310% | 1.408% | +0.008 | +0.221 |
| Yasuo | 1.240% | 1.250% | 1.300% | 1.290% | 1.310% | +0.026 | +0.032 |
| Draven | 1.117% | 1.137% | 1.279% | 1.258% | 1.300% | +0.090 | +0.014 |
| Kindred | 1.133% | 1.218% | 1.272% | 1.186% | 1.365% | +0.023 | +0.354 |
| Elise | 1.086% | 1.092% | 1.187% | 1.180% | 1.193% | +0.032 | -0.001 |
| Blitzcrank | 1.086% | 1.087% | 1.149% | 1.148% | 1.150% | +0.006 | -0.001 |
| Braum | 1.096% | 1.097% | 1.088% | 1.087% | 1.088% | +0.007 | -0.002 |
| Fiora | 0.887% | 0.910% | 0.953% | 0.931% | 0.976% | +0.089 | +0.017 |
| Vel'Koz | 0.936% | 0.941% | 0.939% | 0.935% | 0.944% | +0.014 | +0.011 |
| Zoe | 0.854% | 0.857% | 0.883% | 0.880% | 0.885% | +0.011 | +0.001 |
| Vladimir | 0.788% | 0.796% | 0.805% | 0.798% | 0.813% | +0.018 | +0.027 |
| Graves | 0.687% | 0.690% | 0.696% | 0.693% | 0.699% | +0.016 | +0.002 |
| Soraka | 0.670% | 0.674% | 0.680% | 0.676% | 0.683% | +0.015 | +0.003 |
| Samira | 0.654% | 0.660% | 0.654% | 0.647% | 0.660% | +0.015 | +0.021 |
| Urgot | 0.650% | 0.655% | 0.651% | 0.647% | 0.655% | +0.009 | +0.014 |
| Mordekaiser | 0.559% | 0.580% | 0.583% | 0.562% | 0.605% | +0.010 | +0.089 |
| Amumu | 0.589% | 0.589% | 0.582% | 0.581% | 0.582% | +0.003 | -0.000 |
| Udyr | 0.582% | 0.586% | 0.580% | 0.576% | 0.583% | +0.011 | +0.010 |
| Aurelion Sol | 0.516% | 0.517% | 0.511% | 0.510% | 0.512% | +0.005 | -0.000 |
| Diana | 0.480% | 0.488% | 0.510% | 0.501% | 0.519% | +0.005 | +0.042 |
| Smolder | 0.412% | 0.431% | 0.463% | 0.444% | 0.483% | +0.010 | +0.078 |
| Gangplank | 0.384% | 0.387% | 0.460% | 0.457% | 0.462% | +0.005 | +0.010 |
| Taric | 0.427% | 0.429% | 0.426% | 0.424% | 0.428% | +0.009 | +0.001 |
| Heimerdinger | 0.408% | 0.411% | 0.406% | 0.403% | 0.409% | +0.009 | +0.006 |
| Warwick | 0.346% | 0.348% | 0.343% | 0.341% | 0.345% | +0.004 | +0.007 |
| Irelia | 0.291% | 0.293% | 0.339% | 0.337% | 0.341% | +0.003 | +0.007 |
| Zyra | 0.336% | 0.337% | 0.338% | 0.337% | 0.339% | +0.006 | +0.000 |
| Tryndamere | 0.306% | 0.308% | 0.309% | 0.307% | 0.311% | +0.005 | +0.006 |
| Rek'Sai | 0.248% | 0.249% | 0.246% | 0.244% | 0.247% | +0.004 | +0.003 |
| Ivern | 0.226% | 0.227% | 0.226% | 0.225% | 0.226% | +0.004 | -0.000 |
| Sett | 0.207% | 0.208% | 0.203% | 0.202% | 0.205% | +0.002 | +0.005 |
| Fizz | 0.175% | 0.175% | 0.185% | 0.185% | 0.185% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Illaoi | 0.139% | 0.140% | 0.148% | 0.147% | 0.149% | +0.002 | +0.003 |
| Brand | 0.144% | 0.145% | 0.143% | 0.143% | 0.143% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Malzahar | 0.114% | 0.115% | 0.114% | 0.113% | 0.114% | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Lillia | 0.064% | 0.069% | 0.113% | 0.107% | 0.119% | +0.018 | +0.008 |
| Veigar | 0.111% | 0.111% | 0.110% | 0.110% | 0.111% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Zed | 0.093% | 0.094% | 0.109% | 0.108% | 0.109% | +0.002 | -0.000 |
| Talon | 0.069% | 0.069% | 0.097% | 0.096% | 0.097% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Hecarim | 0.068% | 0.068% | 0.078% | 0.078% | 0.078% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Viego | 0.018% | 0.018% | 0.075% | 0.075% | 0.075% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Zac | 0.051% | 0.051% | 0.074% | 0.074% | 0.074% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Bel'Veth | 0.074% | 0.074% | 0.074% | 0.073% | 0.074% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Rammus | 0.071% | 0.071% | 0.071% | 0.071% | 0.071% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Rengar | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.068% | 0.068% | 0.068% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Janna | 0.068% | 0.068% | 0.067% | 0.067% | 0.068% | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Twitch | 0.062% | 0.063% | 0.063% | 0.062% | 0.063% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Zilean | 0.062% | 0.063% | 0.063% | 0.062% | 0.063% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Darius | 0.062% | 0.062% | 0.062% | 0.062% | 0.062% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Ekko | 0.029% | 0.029% | 0.056% | 0.056% | 0.056% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Akshan | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.055% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Teemo | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.055% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Fiddlesticks | 0.050% | 0.051% | 0.051% | 0.050% | 0.051% | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Karthus | 0.045% | 0.046% | 0.046% | 0.045% | 0.046% | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Morgana | 0.046% | 0.046% | 0.045% | 0.045% | 0.045% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Kayn | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.045% | 0.045% | 0.045% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Sona | 0.044% | 0.044% | 0.043% | 0.043% | 0.043% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Nilah | 0.008% | 0.008% | 0.027% | 0.027% | 0.027% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Quinn | 0.025% | 0.025% | 0.024% | 0.024% | 0.025% | +0.000 | +0.001 |
| Kayle | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.019% | 0.019% | 0.019% | -0.000 | -0.000 |
| Riven | 0.019% | 0.019% | 0.019% | 0.018% | 0.019% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Briar | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Evelynn | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Kassadin | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Katarina | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Master Yi | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Nunu & Willump | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Shaco | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Singed | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |