V4 patch and reference sensitivity
Hold ranked observations fixed while switching model patch priors.1.25 is an untrained assumption;26.19/20 use two-factor Shapley. Ranked observations already reflect patch effects, so these differences describe model-prior changes, not actual causal effects.
| Champion | V3 | Stronger patch only | V4 | Response1.0 + references | Response1.5 + references | 26.19 / pp | 26.20 / pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassiopeia | 84.839% | 84.477% | 84.618% | 84.980% | 84.241% | +2.347 | -4.074 |
| Nocturne | 72.841% | 71.145% | 71.150% | 72.846% | 69.480% | -9.226 | +0.438 |
| Vi | 66.351% | 64.483% | 64.531% | 66.399% | 62.704% | -10.152 | +0.355 |
| Olaf | 57.322% | 57.719% | 57.648% | 57.251% | 58.035% | +1.485 | +0.664 |
| Ezreal | 52.866% | 53.303% | 53.266% | 52.830% | 53.691% | +1.399 | +0.984 |
| Jarvan IV | 52.213% | 52.504% | 52.551% | 52.261% | 52.834% | +1.322 | +0.186 |
| Lee Sin | 49.915% | 50.188% | 50.427% | 50.153% | 50.693% | +1.254 | +0.169 |
| Syndra | 47.657% | 47.871% | 47.927% | 47.714% | 48.135% | +0.881 | +0.163 |
| Orianna | 45.008% | 45.201% | 45.085% | 44.893% | 45.272% | +0.806 | +0.124 |
| Qiyana | 40.772% | 40.990% | 41.248% | 41.030% | 41.460% | +1.011 | +0.127 |
| Akali | 39.373% | 39.583% | 39.687% | 39.477% | 39.892% | +0.862 | +0.629 |
| Rumble | 39.854% | 39.157% | 39.013% | 39.705% | 38.325% | -4.114 | +1.047 |
| Ryze | 38.253% | 37.748% | 37.602% | 38.104% | 37.103% | -2.672 | +0.047 |
| Seraphine | 37.051% | 37.168% | 36.934% | 36.818% | 37.048% | +0.488 | +0.088 |
| Lucian | 38.117% | 36.694% | 36.809% | 38.226% | 35.436% | -9.745 | +2.326 |
| Nautilus | 36.523% | 36.666% | 36.536% | 36.393% | 36.676% | +0.769 | +0.103 |
| Lulu | 36.021% | 36.107% | 35.990% | 35.903% | 36.074% | +0.379 | +0.036 |
| Jayce | 34.782% | 35.024% | 35.066% | 34.826% | 35.301% | +0.756 | +0.530 |
| Caitlyn | 34.032% | 34.313% | 34.342% | 34.062% | 34.616% | +0.901 | +0.633 |
| Pantheon | 32.685% | 32.859% | 32.988% | 32.814% | 33.156% | +0.802 | +0.101 |
| Naafiri | 30.657% | 30.805% | 30.858% | 30.710% | 31.002% | +0.718 | +0.062 |
| Karma | 30.827% | 30.896% | 30.753% | 30.684% | 30.821% | +0.305 | +0.024 |
| K'Sante | 30.495% | 29.824% | 29.671% | 30.339% | 29.012% | +0.654 | -4.053 |
| Gnar | 28.799% | 29.000% | 28.830% | 28.630% | 29.025% | +0.592 | +0.472 |
| Kalista | 28.292% | 28.536% | 28.525% | 28.281% | 28.762% | +0.733 | +0.076 |
| Viktor | 27.890% | 27.997% | 27.916% | 27.810% | 28.020% | +0.429 | +0.083 |
| Camille | 26.992% | 27.138% | 27.225% | 27.079% | 27.368% | +0.482 | +0.283 |
| Galio | 27.151% | 27.292% | 27.189% | 27.049% | 27.325% | +0.493 | +0.500 |
| Jhin | 26.100% | 26.340% | 26.408% | 26.168% | 26.642% | +0.640 | +0.720 |
| Bard | 26.097% | 26.178% | 26.281% | 26.200% | 26.359% | +0.346 | +0.047 |
| Skarner | 24.199% | 24.307% | 24.319% | 24.211% | 24.424% | +0.540 | +0.032 |
| Locke | 23.929% | 24.041% | 24.105% | 23.994% | 24.213% | +0.464 | +0.080 |
| Xin Zhao | 23.669% | 23.795% | 23.794% | 23.669% | 23.916% | +0.582 | +0.072 |
| Milio | 23.655% | 23.675% | 23.463% | 23.443% | 23.482% | +0.098 | -0.022 |
| Trundle | 22.697% | 22.817% | 22.811% | 22.691% | 22.927% | +0.539 | +0.090 |
| Yunara | 23.632% | 22.680% | 22.694% | 23.646% | 21.773% | +0.617 | -5.905 |
| Wukong | 22.469% | 22.580% | 22.571% | 22.460% | 22.679% | +0.531 | +0.051 |
| Poppy | 21.815% | 21.415% | 21.522% | 21.923% | 21.126% | -2.141 | +0.103 |
| Ambessa | 21.957% | 21.289% | 21.142% | 21.805% | 20.494% | +0.420 | -3.889 |
| Renata Glasc | 20.368% | 20.397% | 20.328% | 20.298% | 20.356% | +0.136 | -0.004 |
| Alistar | 19.997% | 20.041% | 20.000% | 19.957% | 20.043% | +0.280 | +0.014 |
| Ashe | 19.083% | 18.825% | 18.733% | 18.990% | 18.474% | +0.474 | -2.028 |
| Rakan | 18.330% | 18.365% | 18.254% | 18.220% | 18.288% | +0.235 | +0.006 |
| Sylas | 17.641% | 17.714% | 17.796% | 17.723% | 17.868% | +0.298 | +0.257 |
| Ahri | 17.700% | 17.759% | 17.715% | 17.656% | 17.772% | +0.249 | +0.025 |
| Renekton | 17.292% | 17.413% | 17.347% | 17.227% | 17.464% | +0.355 | +0.284 |
| Anivia | 17.242% | 17.323% | 17.283% | 17.203% | 17.361% | +0.302 | +0.098 |
| Varus | 16.899% | 17.038% | 17.003% | 16.864% | 17.137% | +0.376 | +0.017 |
| Twisted Fate | 16.163% | 16.242% | 16.197% | 16.118% | 16.273% | +0.307 | +0.085 |
| Vayne | 15.671% | 16.132% | 16.111% | 15.650% | 16.582% | +0.382 | +1.449 |
| Annie | 15.517% | 15.577% | 15.546% | 15.486% | 15.604% | +0.250 | +0.214 |
| Xayah | 15.243% | 15.381% | 15.322% | 15.185% | 15.456% | +0.378 | +0.396 |
| Ziggs | 14.182% | 14.298% | 14.266% | 14.150% | 14.378% | +0.374 | +0.258 |
| Yone | 13.538% | 13.593% | 13.668% | 13.613% | 13.722% | +0.228 | +0.037 |
| Maokai | 12.924% | 12.985% | 12.986% | 12.926% | 13.044% | +0.294 | +0.023 |
| Shen | 12.187% | 12.225% | 12.172% | 12.135% | 12.209% | +0.131 | +0.055 |
| Cho'Gath | 11.669% | 11.721% | 11.818% | 11.765% | 11.868% | +0.254 | +0.023 |
| Sivir | 11.559% | 11.666% | 11.637% | 11.529% | 11.741% | +0.281 | +0.328 |
| Neeko | 11.254% | 11.416% | 11.365% | 11.204% | 11.528% | +0.152 | +0.668 |
| Yorick | 10.723% | 10.798% | 10.705% | 10.631% | 10.778% | +0.190 | +0.201 |
| Jax | 10.612% | 10.686% | 10.637% | 10.564% | 10.708% | +0.211 | +0.177 |
| Aurora | 10.307% | 10.611% | 10.613% | 10.312% | 10.923% | +1.393 | +0.125 |
| Kai'Sa | 10.326% | 10.414% | 10.470% | 10.382% | 10.555% | +0.256 | +0.234 |
| Rell | 9.757% | 9.766% | 9.720% | 9.710% | 9.729% | +0.090 | -0.007 |
| Corki | 9.477% | 9.557% | 9.579% | 9.499% | 9.657% | +0.229 | +0.218 |
| Taliyah | 9.254% | 9.298% | 9.278% | 9.235% | 9.320% | +0.152 | +0.068 |
| Gwen | 9.250% | 9.314% | 9.248% | 9.185% | 9.310% | +0.149 | +0.184 |
| Leona | 8.743% | 8.760% | 8.714% | 8.697% | 8.730% | +0.113 | +0.003 |
| Zeri | 8.028% | 8.096% | 8.150% | 8.081% | 8.216% | +0.205 | +0.083 |
| Sejuani | 7.753% | 7.788% | 7.783% | 7.748% | 7.818% | +0.174 | +0.014 |
| Miss Fortune | 7.289% | 7.356% | 7.368% | 7.301% | 7.433% | +0.179 | +0.199 |
| Ornn | 7.230% | 7.281% | 7.245% | 7.195% | 7.294% | +0.138 | +0.126 |
| Lissandra | 6.694% | 6.717% | 6.736% | 6.713% | 6.758% | +0.092 | +0.091 |
| Kled | 6.097% | 6.139% | 6.136% | 6.094% | 6.177% | +0.130 | +0.096 |
| Shyvana | 6.061% | 6.093% | 6.091% | 6.059% | 6.122% | +0.137 | +0.031 |
| LeBlanc | 5.978% | 5.998% | 6.081% | 6.060% | 6.102% | +0.088 | +0.010 |
| Aphelios | 5.133% | 5.326% | 5.496% | 5.303% | 5.693% | +0.770 | +0.165 |
| Tristana | 5.228% | 5.264% | 5.369% | 5.334% | 5.404% | +0.097 | +0.092 |
| Sion | 5.375% | 5.414% | 5.364% | 5.326% | 5.401% | +0.091 | +0.110 |
| Aatrox | 5.053% | 5.205% | 5.188% | 5.037% | 5.344% | +0.642 | +0.069 |
| Yuumi | 5.009% | 5.019% | 4.994% | 4.984% | 5.003% | +0.043 | +0.002 |
| Gragas | 4.786% | 4.819% | 4.955% | 4.922% | 4.987% | +0.082 | +0.134 |
| Zaahen | 4.756% | 4.786% | 4.772% | 4.743% | 4.801% | +0.098 | +0.060 |
| Thresh | 4.501% | 4.506% | 4.499% | 4.494% | 4.505% | +0.046 | -0.002 |
| Dr. Mundo | 4.343% | 4.371% | 4.339% | 4.311% | 4.366% | +0.073 | +0.076 |
| Mel | 4.203% | 4.239% | 4.232% | 4.196% | 4.267% | +0.104 | +0.098 |
| Jinx | 3.795% | 3.832% | 3.850% | 3.813% | 3.885% | +0.090 | +0.075 |
| Lux | 3.774% | 3.783% | 3.778% | 3.769% | 3.787% | +0.038 | +0.003 |
| Kennen | 3.577% | 3.629% | 3.645% | 3.592% | 3.697% | +0.065 | +0.230 |
| Pyke | 3.013% | 3.022% | 3.034% | 3.026% | 3.042% | +0.035 | +0.004 |
| Volibear | 2.835% | 2.907% | 2.903% | 2.832% | 2.976% | +0.320 | +0.026 |
| Nami | 2.858% | 2.861% | 2.852% | 2.848% | 2.855% | +0.015 | -0.002 |
| Vex | 2.680% | 2.689% | 2.715% | 2.706% | 2.724% | +0.036 | +0.006 |
| Azir | 2.557% | 2.567% | 2.558% | 2.548% | 2.567% | +0.040 | +0.005 |
| Nasus | 2.564% | 2.543% | 2.538% | 2.559% | 2.517% | -0.141 | +0.040 |
| Hwei | 2.370% | 2.378% | 2.360% | 2.352% | 2.367% | +0.028 | +0.009 |
| Senna | 2.299% | 2.318% | 2.316% | 2.297% | 2.334% | +0.057 | +0.048 |
| Kog'Maw | 1.895% | 1.911% | 1.905% | 1.890% | 1.920% | +0.049 | +0.015 |
| Kha'Zix | 1.705% | 1.791% | 1.863% | 1.777% | 1.953% | +0.394 | -0.002 |
| Xerath | 1.683% | 1.698% | 1.687% | 1.673% | 1.701% | +0.040 | +0.042 |
| Malphite | 1.541% | 1.552% | 1.537% | 1.527% | 1.547% | +0.026 | +0.027 |
| Swain | 1.472% | 1.496% | 1.509% | 1.484% | 1.533% | +0.029 | +0.092 |
| Garen | 1.502% | 1.513% | 1.503% | 1.492% | 1.513% | +0.026 | +0.028 |
| Nidalee | 1.314% | 1.322% | 1.369% | 1.361% | 1.377% | +0.034 | +0.008 |
| Tahm Kench | 1.320% | 1.369% | 1.357% | 1.309% | 1.407% | +0.008 | +0.220 |
| Yasuo | 1.240% | 1.250% | 1.276% | 1.265% | 1.286% | +0.026 | +0.031 |
| Draven | 1.117% | 1.137% | 1.270% | 1.249% | 1.291% | +0.090 | +0.014 |
| Kindred | 1.133% | 1.218% | 1.232% | 1.146% | 1.323% | +0.023 | +0.349 |
| Elise | 1.086% | 1.092% | 1.167% | 1.160% | 1.173% | +0.032 | -0.001 |
| Blitzcrank | 1.086% | 1.087% | 1.134% | 1.132% | 1.135% | +0.006 | -0.001 |
| Braum | 1.096% | 1.097% | 1.091% | 1.090% | 1.091% | +0.007 | -0.002 |
| Vel'Koz | 0.936% | 0.941% | 0.941% | 0.937% | 0.946% | +0.014 | +0.011 |
| Fiora | 0.887% | 0.910% | 0.936% | 0.914% | 0.958% | +0.090 | +0.017 |
| Zoe | 0.854% | 0.857% | 0.861% | 0.858% | 0.863% | +0.011 | +0.001 |
| Vladimir | 0.788% | 0.796% | 0.808% | 0.800% | 0.815% | +0.018 | +0.027 |
| Graves | 0.687% | 0.690% | 0.699% | 0.696% | 0.702% | +0.016 | +0.002 |
| Soraka | 0.670% | 0.674% | 0.680% | 0.677% | 0.684% | +0.015 | +0.003 |
| Samira | 0.654% | 0.660% | 0.655% | 0.649% | 0.661% | +0.015 | +0.021 |
| Urgot | 0.650% | 0.655% | 0.653% | 0.648% | 0.657% | +0.010 | +0.014 |
| Amumu | 0.589% | 0.589% | 0.583% | 0.582% | 0.584% | +0.003 | -0.000 |
| Udyr | 0.582% | 0.586% | 0.581% | 0.577% | 0.585% | +0.011 | +0.011 |
| Mordekaiser | 0.559% | 0.580% | 0.575% | 0.554% | 0.596% | +0.010 | +0.088 |
| Aurelion Sol | 0.516% | 0.517% | 0.513% | 0.512% | 0.514% | +0.005 | -0.000 |
| Diana | 0.480% | 0.488% | 0.510% | 0.501% | 0.519% | +0.005 | +0.041 |
| Smolder | 0.412% | 0.431% | 0.447% | 0.428% | 0.467% | +0.010 | +0.078 |
| Taric | 0.427% | 0.429% | 0.427% | 0.425% | 0.428% | +0.009 | +0.001 |
| Heimerdinger | 0.408% | 0.411% | 0.408% | 0.405% | 0.411% | +0.009 | +0.006 |
| Gangplank | 0.384% | 0.387% | 0.398% | 0.395% | 0.400% | +0.004 | +0.009 |
| Warwick | 0.346% | 0.348% | 0.344% | 0.342% | 0.346% | +0.004 | +0.007 |
| Zyra | 0.336% | 0.337% | 0.336% | 0.335% | 0.337% | +0.006 | +0.000 |
| Irelia | 0.291% | 0.293% | 0.333% | 0.331% | 0.335% | +0.003 | +0.007 |
| Tryndamere | 0.306% | 0.308% | 0.307% | 0.305% | 0.309% | +0.005 | +0.006 |
| Rek'Sai | 0.248% | 0.249% | 0.247% | 0.246% | 0.249% | +0.004 | +0.003 |
| Ivern | 0.226% | 0.227% | 0.227% | 0.226% | 0.228% | +0.004 | -0.000 |
| Sett | 0.207% | 0.208% | 0.205% | 0.204% | 0.207% | +0.002 | +0.005 |
| Fizz | 0.175% | 0.175% | 0.186% | 0.186% | 0.186% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Illaoi | 0.139% | 0.140% | 0.149% | 0.148% | 0.150% | +0.002 | +0.003 |
| Brand | 0.144% | 0.145% | 0.144% | 0.143% | 0.144% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Malzahar | 0.114% | 0.115% | 0.114% | 0.114% | 0.114% | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Veigar | 0.111% | 0.111% | 0.111% | 0.110% | 0.111% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Zed | 0.093% | 0.094% | 0.109% | 0.109% | 0.109% | +0.002 | -0.000 |
| Lillia | 0.064% | 0.069% | 0.100% | 0.095% | 0.106% | +0.017 | +0.007 |
| Bel'Veth | 0.074% | 0.074% | 0.074% | 0.074% | 0.074% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Zac | 0.051% | 0.051% | 0.074% | 0.074% | 0.074% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Hecarim | 0.068% | 0.068% | 0.074% | 0.074% | 0.074% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Rammus | 0.071% | 0.071% | 0.071% | 0.071% | 0.071% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Talon | 0.069% | 0.069% | 0.069% | 0.069% | 0.069% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Janna | 0.068% | 0.068% | 0.068% | 0.067% | 0.068% | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Twitch | 0.062% | 0.063% | 0.063% | 0.062% | 0.063% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Zilean | 0.062% | 0.063% | 0.063% | 0.062% | 0.063% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Darius | 0.062% | 0.062% | 0.062% | 0.062% | 0.062% | +0.001 | -0.000 |
| Akshan | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.055% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Teemo | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.054% | 0.055% | +0.002 | +0.000 |
| Rengar | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.053% | 0.053% | 0.053% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Fiddlesticks | 0.050% | 0.051% | 0.051% | 0.050% | 0.051% | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Karthus | 0.045% | 0.046% | 0.046% | 0.045% | 0.046% | +0.001 | +0.000 |
| Morgana | 0.046% | 0.046% | 0.046% | 0.046% | 0.046% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Kayn | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.045% | 0.045% | 0.045% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Sona | 0.044% | 0.044% | 0.044% | 0.044% | 0.044% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Viego | 0.018% | 0.018% | 0.038% | 0.038% | 0.038% | +0.000 | -0.000 |
| Ekko | 0.029% | 0.029% | 0.034% | 0.034% | 0.034% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Quinn | 0.025% | 0.025% | 0.025% | 0.024% | 0.025% | +0.000 | +0.001 |
| Kayle | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.020% | 0.020% | 0.020% | -0.000 | -0.000 |
| Riven | 0.019% | 0.019% | 0.019% | 0.019% | 0.019% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Nilah | 0.008% | 0.008% | 0.016% | 0.016% | 0.016% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Briar | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Evelynn | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Kassadin | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Katarina | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Master Yi | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Nunu & Willump | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Shaco | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |
| Singed | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | +0.000 | +0.000 |