WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP · S16

Read every Worlds draft.

Explore champion picks, bans and role trends.

MODEL V3

173 champions5 roles26.20Worlds outcomes pending

Evidence-supported roles + separate patch priors. Unsupported roles stay exactly zero; original V2 is retained as a comparator. Pick bars are stacked by role.

Model Metric Reference Champion search

Professional games2556Historical input

Champions173champions

Champion role details5roles

Shared features17Frozen model

Worlds outcomes pending · Comparators are forecasts or historical statistics. Differences are not Worlds prediction errors; actual outcomes remain blank.

01 / COMPARE

Forecasts and references, side by side.

Select a champion for role details

Top 20 · Role breakdowns

TOP 20

All champions

173

02 / EXPLORE

Explore every champion.

Sorted by selected metric · Select a row for details · Scroll horizontally on mobile

Champion	Pick	Ban	Presence	Mean rank	Mean step	Historical reference	V3 95%

Champion role details

Champion

03 / EVALUATE

Assess the evidence and its limits.

Metric	V2	V3
Pick MAE / pp	3.3161	3.2834
Pick RMSE / pp	5.3810	5.3696
Ban MAE / pp	3.7430	3.7435
Presence RMSE / pp	8.6146	8.5959
Champion × role RMSE / pp	2.4599	2.4542
Pick-weighted rank MAE	1.4622	1.4602
Pick-weighted BP-step MAE	2.4665	2.4612

Gains are small, not proof of better Worlds accuracy or actual26.19/26.20 effects. Parameters train/select on S15 only; S16 does not tune them.

Full method, training and S15/S16 errors · Per-window errors · Reproduction hashes

04 / UNDERSTAND

Transparent parameters, traceable results.

Current model parameters

ridge	0.03
residual_blend	0.75
position_blend	0.5

Presence tiers · All-champion patch sensitivity · Full method, training and S15/S16 errors

Comparators are forecasts or historical statistics. Differences are not Worlds prediction errors; actual outcomes remain blank.