{ "metadata": { "kind": "frozen_model_patch_sensitivity_diagnostic", "season": "S16", "target_patch": "26.20", "prediction_cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T19:20:41Z", "historical_games": 2556, "champions": 173, "completed_historical_games_on_patch_26_19": 0, "completed_historical_games_on_patch_26_20": 0, "scenario_definition": "Keep history, cutoff, target version, field and frozen coefficients fixed. Zero encoded numeric/mechanism/system arrays for inactive patches.", "attribution": "For each metric, patch19 = ((S19-S0)+(S19+20-S20))/2; patch20 = ((S20-S0)+(S19+20-S19))/2. Their sum equals S19+20-S0.", "units": "Rates are fractions; multiply differences by 100 for percentage points. Rank/step differences are in draft positions. Patch coding scores are dimensionless weighted log changes, not percentage points or measured champion power.", "interpretation": "All-champion joint patch removal measures model sensitivity including competition and normalization. Unchanged champions can move. This is not an observed or causal effect, nor an independently validated future result.", "position_note": "Mean positions are conditional on selection. Patch differences also change role mixture; high movement for rarely selected champions can be unstable.", "far_from_training_mean_flag": "Heuristic |(feature-training mean)/saved standardization scale|>5. The scale can have a 0.025 floor; this is not an empirical standard-deviation test or significance level.", "role_revival_flag": "Heuristic: zero observed picks in the last45-day comparator, forecast role rate>=2%, and patch-driven role increase>=2pp.", "flag_scope": "Feature-extrapolation and role-revival flags diagnose V2 even when viewing the V1 comparator. The Rocketbelt haste sign error concerns shared patch encoding used by both models.", "known_encoding_error": "Frozen Rocketbelt 20->10 haste uses cooldown-denominator sign backwards for13 champions. A separate scenario reverses that component for all affected champions; it does not fix unrestricted residual extrapolation or replace the frozen forecast.", "haste_diagnostic_math": "At fixed base cooldown, effective cooldown is proportional to1/(100+haste), so favorable signed log influence is log(110/120), not -log(110/120). Other assumptions remain fixed.", "frozen_forecast_and_parameters_modified": false, "parameter_fitting_on_s16": false, "worlds_outcomes_used": false, "sources_sha256": { "s16_preparation\\outputs\\champion_predictions.json": "2f6183531b87edf60c23ece469e5601768e770e4fe62a54ddf5ca0f470a08050", "s16_preparation\\outputs\\prediction_arrays.json": "3e0f5e899cc9379f8e4e3314a7207218d2a6b9cf88efde6bfc656ccfa01e1b71", "s16_preparation\\outputs\\input_features.json": "b0779b574f64f17705ce3367c7d8b1198ae5fa446b2340b85c314705127e067f", "s16_preparation\\outputs\\forecast_manifest.json": "521b36f4327d422a8181435105fa8e999bb97def5dece94fac2b67cf92629261", "s16_preparation\\transfer_parameters\\parameters_s16_prior.json": "f1b4eaa6f93c86b55273c8f4a3c03e0b2d19ec7407405789bd0da8a4aadeecf5", "s16_preparation\\transfer_parameters\\v1_initial_prior.json": "979413c215efdbb8cd9fa5a7a70a87c22ccbde5444851f94b6b3398d76b4f9ed", "s16_preparation\\inputs\\patch_changes\\patch_change_features.json": "30009bba44d90f465abd19e766606b96c12bce65a1ef931b7d6568817214ea95" }, "official_sources": [ "https://www.leagueoflegends.com/en-us/news/game-updates/league-of-legends-patch-26-19-notes/", "https://www.leagueoflegends.com/en-us/news/game-updates/league-of-legends-patch-26-20-notes/" ] }, "rows": [ { "champion": "Aatrox", "zh_CN_name": "亚托克斯", "zh_CN_title": "暗裔剑魔", "icon_path": "assets/champions/aatrox.png", "v2": { "scenarios": { "none": { "pick_rate": 0.03314605518449007, "ban_rate": 0.0116381541505542, "bp_heat": 0.04478420933504427, "avg_pick_order_1_10": 7.166774280225902, "avg_pick_bp_step_1_20": 15.690390964582775 }, "19_only": { "pick_rate": 0.15543693810154116, "ban_rate": 0.037415633927441884, "bp_heat": 0.19285257202898304, "avg_pick_order_1_10": 6.562076966986085, "avg_pick_bp_step_1_20": 15.17647898685237 }, "20_only": { "pick_rate": 0.02784366480566762, "ban_rate": 0.011490179068107852, "bp_heat": 0.039333843873775476, "avg_pick_order_1_10": 6.9948726712740585, 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