M2: full-archive relationships and issue #15 acceptance

This reproducible module describes historical relationships, without promising causal counters, live updates or M4 draft decisions. Lane and cross-role models use the full archive, retaining unknown formats as missing context. Co-selection opportunities use only series with supported rules and complete drafts. Existing M1/M3 predictions remain unchanged.

Archive coverage and missing data

Of 16,437 input games, 15,669 are admitted. Every game has an audit status; none are silently dropped. Upstream processing already excluded 25 explicitly identified blind-pick games.

Status	Games
incomplete_or_unverified_series_join	671
admitted	15669
reserved_evaluation_partition	84
duplicate_alias	13

Format context	Games
unknown	12523
classic	209
full_fearless	2937

All 39 DCGI games share one test event block. Individual series IDs were not guessed. This conservative grouping prevents a real series from crossing partitions; it does not claim that every series is verified or that the event has finished.

Unknown does not mean Classic. The standard Tournament Draft interpretation is scoped to LEC 2024, with unresolved year/revision details in the mirrored rulebook. The official professional champion restriction list has not been recovered publicly. Closing the issue does not remove this disclosed uncertainty.

Partition	Games	Groups (series or conservative event blocks)
train	12114	6128
selection	618	243
calibration	401	142
test	2536	979

Fit before July 2025, select in July–August, calibrate in September–December, and use 2026 for retrospective diagnostics. Series stay intact, and Elo is updated only after labels are complete. Declared raw-value conflicts are masked per target, never filled with zero. See coverage.json and input_manifest.json for sources, aliases, rules and missing data.

Complete lane ablations (test)

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Unit / minute	Model	Selected	Target	Valid N	MAE	RMSE	Nominal 90% interval coverage	Low-support N
top/10	context	No	cs_difference	2388	10.47	13.26	89.8%	873
top/10	context	No	gold_difference	2388	395.34	504.33	83.3%	873
top/10	context	No	xp_difference	2388	323.96	431.81	93.0%	873
top/10	champions	Yes	cs_difference	2388	9.80	12.42	90.5%	873
top/10	champions	Yes	gold_difference	2388	364.87	473.99	84.9%	873
top/10	champions	Yes	xp_difference	2388	316.05	425.10	92.0%	873
top/10	hierarchical	No	cs_difference	2388	9.81	12.43	90.4%	873
top/10	hierarchical	No	gold_difference	2388	365.99	474.69	85.6%	873
top/10	hierarchical	No	xp_difference	2388	317.52	425.99	91.9%	873
top/15	context	No	cs_difference	2371	15.06	18.78	88.3%	866
top/15	context	No	gold_difference	2099	698.89	891.39	83.1%	768
top/15	context	No	xp_difference	2276	664.23	856.21	84.2%	829
top/15	champions	Yes	cs_difference	2371	14.45	18.16	87.1%	866
top/15	champions	Yes	gold_difference	2099	662.69	851.25	84.0%	768
top/15	champions	Yes	xp_difference	2276	657.27	849.60	83.1%	829
top/15	hierarchical	No	cs_difference	2371	14.46	18.19	87.1%	866
top/15	hierarchical	No	gold_difference	2099	665.11	853.24	82.6%	768
top/15	hierarchical	No	xp_difference	2276	658.67	851.25	83.2%	829
mid/10	context	No	cs_difference	2388	9.00	11.36	85.2%	818
mid/10	context	No	gold_difference	2388	373.62	483.39	85.4%	818
mid/10	context	No	xp_difference	2388	330.19	417.44	84.7%	818
mid/10	champions	No	cs_difference	2388	8.38	10.61	82.1%	818
mid/10	champions	No	gold_difference	2388	365.79	471.62	86.1%	818
mid/10	champions	No	xp_difference	2388	327.88	413.50	83.5%	818
mid/10	hierarchical	Yes	cs_difference	2388	8.46	10.72	83.3%	818
mid/10	hierarchical	Yes	gold_difference	2388	367.21	475.75	85.3%	818
mid/10	hierarchical	Yes	xp_difference	2388	327.11	412.75	85.0%	818
mid/15	context	No	cs_difference	2369	12.77	16.12	87.9%	813
mid/15	context	No	gold_difference	2100	626.22	804.11	88.5%	728
mid/15	context	No	xp_difference	2265	559.33	712.61	89.6%	779
mid/15	champions	No	cs_difference	2369	11.98	15.15	88.1%	813
mid/15	champions	No	gold_difference	2100	615.65	789.26	88.4%	728
mid/15	champions	No	xp_difference	2265	553.40	705.67	89.7%	779
mid/15	hierarchical	Yes	cs_difference	2369	12.13	15.34	86.6%	813
mid/15	hierarchical	Yes	gold_difference	2100	619.37	794.75	88.3%	728
mid/15	hierarchical	Yes	xp_difference	2265	554.60	706.28	87.5%	779
bot_duo/10	context	No	bot_cs_difference	2388	10.02	12.87	86.6%	2334
bot_duo/10	context	No	duo_gold_difference	2388	585.13	763.97	83.1%	2334
bot_duo/10	context	No	duo_xp_difference	2388	415.44	534.49	88.3%	2334
bot_duo/10	champions	Yes	bot_cs_difference	2388	9.89	12.68	89.5%	2334
bot_duo/10	champions	Yes	duo_gold_difference	2388	576.04	754.04	83.1%	2334
bot_duo/10	champions	Yes	duo_xp_difference	2388	410.83	528.76	88.6%	2334
bot_duo/10	duo	No	bot_cs_difference	2388	9.88	12.67	88.9%	2334
bot_duo/10	duo	No	duo_gold_difference	2388	575.23	753.14	83.3%	2334
bot_duo/10	duo	No	duo_xp_difference	2388	410.83	528.78	88.6%	2334
bot_duo/10	hierarchical	No	bot_cs_difference	2388	9.90	12.69	88.6%	2334
bot_duo/10	hierarchical	No	duo_gold_difference	2388	575.13	753.11	83.3%	2334
bot_duo/10	hierarchical	No	duo_xp_difference	2388	410.99	528.86	88.6%	2334
bot_duo/15	context	Yes	bot_cs_difference	2383	14.36	18.45	84.8%	2329
bot_duo/15	context	Yes	duo_gold_difference	2007	1049.12	1359.64	84.5%	1960
bot_duo/15	context	Yes	duo_xp_difference	2272	709.00	899.08	88.7%	2220
bot_duo/15	champions	No	bot_cs_difference	2383	14.35	18.36	86.3%	2329
bot_duo/15	champions	No	duo_gold_difference	2007	1042.42	1349.20	83.7%	1960
bot_duo/15	champions	No	duo_xp_difference	2272	705.66	895.52	87.9%	2220
bot_duo/15	duo	No	bot_cs_difference	2383	14.35	18.37	86.1%	2329
bot_duo/15	duo	No	duo_gold_difference	2007	1041.31	1348.37	83.4%	1960
bot_duo/15	duo	No	duo_xp_difference	2272	705.47	895.40	87.7%	2220
bot_duo/15	hierarchical	No	bot_cs_difference	2383	14.37	18.41	85.9%	2329
bot_duo/15	hierarchical	No	duo_gold_difference	2007	1041.12	1348.28	83.4%	1960
bot_duo/15	hierarchical	No	duo_xp_difference	2272	705.35	895.40	87.7%	2220

Series-level error-difference intervals

Compare the fixed selected model with context: positive values indicate lower RMSE. Intervals use 2,000 paired bootstrap draws of whole series or conservative event blocks, not counter-coefficient confidence intervals. Missing labels are handled per target; test results do not reselect models.

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Unit / minute	Target	Valid N	Series	RMSE reduction	95% series interval
top/10	cs_difference	2388	940	0.84	[0.62, 1.03]
top/10	gold_difference	2388	940	30.34	[23.86, 36.81]
top/10	xp_difference	2388	940	6.71	[2.91, 10.31]
top/15	cs_difference	2371	937	0.62	[0.34, 0.88]
top/15	gold_difference	2099	908	40.14	[28.74, 52.18]
top/15	xp_difference	2276	931	6.61	[0.93, 11.97]
mid/10	cs_difference	2388	940	0.64	[0.52, 0.75]
mid/10	gold_difference	2388	940	7.64	[4.29, 11.08]
mid/10	xp_difference	2388	940	4.69	[1.95, 7.38]
mid/15	cs_difference	2369	938	0.78	[0.65, 0.92]
mid/15	gold_difference	2100	907	9.36	[5.19, 13.73]
mid/15	xp_difference	2265	926	6.33	[2.73, 10.14]
bot_duo/10	bot_cs_difference	2388	940	0.20	[0.03, 0.37]
bot_duo/10	duo_gold_difference	2388	940	9.94	[6.02, 14.06]
bot_duo/10	duo_xp_difference	2388	940	5.73	[3.61, 7.98]
bot_duo/15	bot_cs_difference	2383	940	0.00	[0.00, 0.00]
bot_duo/15	duo_gold_difference	2007	897	0.00	[0.00, 0.00]
bot_duo/15	duo_xp_difference	2272	929	0.00	[0.00, 0.00]

Global relationship ablations

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Model	Selected	Test N	Log loss	Brier
context	No	2536	0.6497	0.2285
champions	Yes	2536	0.6437	0.2260
same	No	2536	0.6443	0.2265
enemy	No	2536	0.6441	0.2263
full	No	2536	0.6483	0.2282

Interaction candidate	Log-loss reduction vs. single-champion baseline	95% series / event-block interval
same	-0.000678	[-0.004063, 0.002837]
enemy	-0.000470	[-0.004469, 0.003661]
full	-0.004617	[-0.010421, 0.001451]

The selected model is champions. Same-team and opposing-team interactions that fail selection are disabled or unknown in default queries. Raw win rates or co-occurrence are not presented as counters. Experimental queries can inspect supported regularized candidates.

Opportunity models: separate formats

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Format	Weight	Selection opportunities	Test opportunities	Test top-5	Test log loss
classic	0	0	0	No observations	No observations
full_fearless	0.5	5850	6540	17.1%	4.6760

Classic masks only the current game; Full Fearless also masks champions picked by either team in earlier games. Missing complete history or unknown formats suppress opportunity scores. The client roster prevents future champions entering earlier patches; callers may supply a precise pool with provenance and timestamps. Unseen champions retain explicitly marked smoothed priors and zero support, without claiming measured synergy. Relative pool weights are not calibrated probabilities of a legal next pick.

Sparse matchup candidates

The table shows the 60 most-supported entries; relationships.json contains all candidates. Four-champion order is explicit, with the first canonical group minus the second. Values are hierarchical residual components, not complete lane predictions. Candidates from unselected models are not enabled automatically.

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Unit / minute	Canonical matchup IDs (duo = bot, support)	Games	Series	Shrinkage weight	Support by format	Adjusted residual component
top/10	58 vs. 897	261	226	0.723	{'unknown': 231, 'classic': 6, 'full_fearless': 24}	cs_difference=1.5, gold_difference=31.1, xp_difference=26.0
top/15	58 vs. 897	261	226	0.723	{'unknown': 231, 'classic': 6, 'full_fearless': 24}	cs_difference=1.7, gold_difference=55.9, xp_difference=26.6
top/10	58 vs. 150	248	230	0.713	{'unknown': 237, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 9}	cs_difference=-0.1, gold_difference=-12.9, xp_difference=-1.3
top/15	58 vs. 150	248	230	0.713	{'unknown': 237, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 9}	cs_difference=-0.5, gold_difference=-9.1, xp_difference=-6.9
mid/10	163 vs. 268	233	218	0.959	{'unknown': 131, 'classic': 15, 'full_fearless': 87}	cs_difference=-1.2, gold_difference=-16.0, xp_difference=-6.2
mid/15	163 vs. 268	233	218	0.823	{'unknown': 131, 'classic': 15, 'full_fearless': 87}	cs_difference=-0.6, gold_difference=4.5, xp_difference=2.7
top/10	24 vs. 897	196	184	0.662	{'unknown': 188, 'full_fearless': 8}	cs_difference=-1.2, gold_difference=-58.3, xp_difference=-24.6
top/15	24 vs. 897	196	184	0.662	{'unknown': 188, 'full_fearless': 8}	cs_difference=-1.7, gold_difference=-94.4, xp_difference=-58.2
top/10	150 vs. 897	167	158	0.625	{'unknown': 147, 'classic': 6, 'full_fearless': 14}	cs_difference=-0.2, gold_difference=0.7, xp_difference=-20.1
top/15	150 vs. 897	167	158	0.625	{'unknown': 147, 'classic': 6, 'full_fearless': 14}	cs_difference=0.1, gold_difference=-12.1, xp_difference=-12.4
top/10	58 vs. 516	163	156	0.620	{'unknown': 143, 'classic': 12, 'full_fearless': 8}	cs_difference=1.0, gold_difference=21.6, xp_difference=-9.3
top/15	58 vs. 516	163	156	0.620	{'unknown': 143, 'classic': 12, 'full_fearless': 8}	cs_difference=0.8, gold_difference=15.8, xp_difference=-21.8
mid/10	103 vs. 163	157	147	0.940	{'unknown': 90, 'classic': 7, 'full_fearless': 60}	cs_difference=0.9, gold_difference=111.1, xp_difference=47.9
mid/15	103 vs. 163	157	147	0.758	{'unknown': 90, 'classic': 7, 'full_fearless': 60}	cs_difference=1.0, gold_difference=82.2, xp_difference=4.5
mid/10	61 vs. 268	156	143	0.940	{'unknown': 147, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 7}	cs_difference=-0.1, gold_difference=-10.7, xp_difference=-19.8
mid/15	61 vs. 268	156	143	0.757	{'unknown': 147, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 7}	cs_difference=-0.2, gold_difference=-60.5, xp_difference=-58.2
top/10	41 vs. 150	151	143	0.602	{'unknown': 149, 'full_fearless': 2}	cs_difference=-0.3, gold_difference=-13.9, xp_difference=-29.8
top/15	41 vs. 150	151	143	0.602	{'unknown': 149, 'full_fearless': 2}	cs_difference=-0.9, gold_difference=-34.2, xp_difference=-58.1
top/10	24 vs. 58	147	139	0.595	{'unknown': 138, 'classic': 1, 'full_fearless': 8}	cs_difference=1.5, gold_difference=45.5, xp_difference=30.3
top/15	24 vs. 58	147	139	0.595	{'unknown': 138, 'classic': 1, 'full_fearless': 8}	cs_difference=2.2, gold_difference=105.7, xp_difference=43.0
mid/10	103 vs. 268	145	139	0.935	{'unknown': 103, 'classic': 4, 'full_fearless': 38}	cs_difference=-0.8, gold_difference=0.4, xp_difference=-26.2
mid/15	103 vs. 268	145	139	0.744	{'unknown': 103, 'classic': 4, 'full_fearless': 38}	cs_difference=-1.4, gold_difference=9.1, xp_difference=-38.6
top/10	58 vs. 79	136	133	0.576	{'unknown': 121, 'classic': 6, 'full_fearless': 9}	cs_difference=1.3, gold_difference=34.1, xp_difference=9.4
top/15	58 vs. 79	136	133	0.576	{'unknown': 121, 'classic': 6, 'full_fearless': 9}	cs_difference=2.2, gold_difference=91.4, xp_difference=18.4
mid/10	18 vs. 42	136	105	0.932	{'unknown': 119, 'classic': 13, 'full_fearless': 4}	cs_difference=-2.3, gold_difference=-21.2, xp_difference=-30.6
mid/15	18 vs. 42	136	105	0.731	{'unknown': 119, 'classic': 13, 'full_fearless': 4}	cs_difference=-2.5, gold_difference=8.2, xp_difference=-41.8
top/10	150 vs. 887	132	124	0.569	{'unknown': 120, 'full_fearless': 12}	cs_difference=1.4, gold_difference=38.8, xp_difference=38.0
top/15	150 vs. 887	132	124	0.569	{'unknown': 120, 'full_fearless': 12}	cs_difference=1.8, gold_difference=77.6, xp_difference=59.0
mid/10	268 vs. 517	129	123	0.928	{'unknown': 110, 'classic': 3, 'full_fearless': 16}	cs_difference=2.4, gold_difference=12.4, xp_difference=55.6
mid/15	268 vs. 517	129	123	0.721	{'unknown': 110, 'classic': 3, 'full_fearless': 16}	cs_difference=2.7, gold_difference=14.3, xp_difference=47.7
mid/10	42 vs. 268	128	121	0.928	{'unknown': 111, 'classic': 8, 'full_fearless': 9}	cs_difference=0.6, gold_difference=-1.1, xp_difference=-32.7
mid/15	42 vs. 268	128	121	0.719	{'unknown': 111, 'classic': 8, 'full_fearless': 9}	cs_difference=1.5, gold_difference=50.5, xp_difference=0.3
mid/10	268 vs. 777	126	121	0.926	{'unknown': 81, 'classic': 3, 'full_fearless': 42}	cs_difference=-1.9, gold_difference=-69.5, xp_difference=-72.2
mid/15	268 vs. 777	126	121	0.716	{'unknown': 81, 'classic': 3, 'full_fearless': 42}	cs_difference=-1.9, gold_difference=-77.3, xp_difference=-96.4
bot_duo/10	221,117 vs. 236,267	123	104	0.552	{'unknown': 121, 'full_fearless': 2}	bot_cs_difference=0.2, duo_gold_difference=-17.4, duo_xp_difference=-11.5
bot_duo/15	221,117 vs. 236,267	123	104	0.552	{'unknown': 121, 'full_fearless': 2}	bot_cs_difference=0.7, duo_gold_difference=19.0, duo_xp_difference=30.6
top/10	58 vs. 266	121	111	0.548	{'unknown': 101, 'classic': 6, 'full_fearless': 14}	cs_difference=1.5, gold_difference=60.0, xp_difference=-5.7
top/15	58 vs. 266	121	111	0.548	{'unknown': 101, 'classic': 6, 'full_fearless': 14}	cs_difference=2.1, gold_difference=76.4, xp_difference=24.4
top/10	68 vs. 897	117	107	0.539	{'unknown': 88, 'classic': 5, 'full_fearless': 24}	cs_difference=1.7, gold_difference=66.4, xp_difference=28.6
top/15	68 vs. 897	117	107	0.539	{'unknown': 88, 'classic': 5, 'full_fearless': 24}	cs_difference=2.1, gold_difference=89.1, xp_difference=45.3
mid/10	112 vs. 268	117	107	0.921	{'unknown': 100, 'full_fearless': 17}	cs_difference=-1.3, gold_difference=-57.9, xp_difference=-79.0
mid/15	112 vs. 268	117	107	0.701	{'unknown': 100, 'full_fearless': 17}	cs_difference=-1.1, gold_difference=-107.9, xp_difference=-46.9
top/10	887 vs. 897	115	114	0.535	{'unknown': 112, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 1}	cs_difference=0.6, gold_difference=-3.9, xp_difference=13.3
top/15	887 vs. 897	115	114	0.535	{'unknown': 112, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 1}	cs_difference=0.1, gold_difference=-3.6, xp_difference=5.2
top/10	150 vs. 164	114	109	0.533	{'unknown': 109, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 3}	cs_difference=0.9, gold_difference=-10.9, xp_difference=-4.9
top/15	150 vs. 164	114	109	0.533	{'unknown': 109, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 3}	cs_difference=1.4, gold_difference=33.2, xp_difference=41.1
mid/10	84 vs. 268	114	109	0.919	{'unknown': 106, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 6}	cs_difference=-0.8, gold_difference=8.0, xp_difference=4.8
mid/15	84 vs. 268	114	109	0.695	{'unknown': 106, 'classic': 2, 'full_fearless': 6}	cs_difference=-0.3, gold_difference=16.0, xp_difference=14.5
top/10	24 vs. 150	110	101	0.524	{'unknown': 99, 'full_fearless': 11}	cs_difference=0.7, gold_difference=14.4, xp_difference=24.5
top/15	24 vs. 150	110	101	0.524	{'unknown': 99, 'full_fearless': 11}	cs_difference=1.4, gold_difference=31.7, xp_difference=61.5
mid/10	61 vs. 112	109	105	0.916	{'unknown': 87, 'full_fearless': 22}	cs_difference=-0.7, gold_difference=34.1, xp_difference=-12.4
mid/15	61 vs. 112	109	105	0.686	{'unknown': 87, 'full_fearless': 22}	cs_difference=-1.3, gold_difference=37.2, xp_difference=-57.3
top/10	266 vs. 897	107	96	0.517	{'unknown': 100, 'classic': 1, 'full_fearless': 6}	cs_difference=1.9, gold_difference=32.2, xp_difference=19.9
top/15	266 vs. 897	107	96	0.517	{'unknown': 100, 'classic': 1, 'full_fearless': 6}	cs_difference=2.8, gold_difference=52.5, xp_difference=28.9
top/10	126 vs. 150	106	97	0.515	{'unknown': 105, 'full_fearless': 1}	cs_difference=0.8, gold_difference=-2.8, xp_difference=15.7
top/15	126 vs. 150	106	97	0.515	{'unknown': 105, 'full_fearless': 1}	cs_difference=1.4, gold_difference=23.9, xp_difference=58.7
mid/10	18 vs. 268	103	92	0.912	{'unknown': 96, 'classic': 5, 'full_fearless': 2}	cs_difference=1.0, gold_difference=33.6, xp_difference=-44.3
mid/15	18 vs. 268	103	92	0.673	{'unknown': 96, 'classic': 5, 'full_fearless': 2}	cs_difference=0.3, gold_difference=72.8, xp_difference=-23.0
mid/10	13 vs. 61	97	89	0.907	{'unknown': 77, 'full_fearless': 20}	cs_difference=-0.3, gold_difference=43.7, xp_difference=-4.4
mid/15	13 vs. 61	97	89	0.660	{'unknown': 77, 'full_fearless': 20}	cs_difference=-1.5, gold_difference=-10.5, xp_difference=-94.8

Issue #15 acceptance checklist

Requirement	Implementation	Remaining data limitations
Existing top-team archive, international games and completed DCGI games, with coverage accounting	Game-by-game archive audit; at least one team is an annual member. Lane/cross-role models retain unknown formats.	Games without verified complete series joins are quarantined. Admitted DCGI games form one conservative test block; 84 games are reserved for evaluation, and 13 are duplicate aliases. Inputs use the specified historical snapshot, not live collection.
Exclude blind picks; separate Classic and Full Fearless opportunities	Explicit blind picks are excluded upstream. Known formats are fitted separately; unknown, mixed or incomplete-draft series do not train opportunities.	Historical rules and revisions have gaps. Unknown is not guessed as Classic; LEC 2024 evidence retains its revision caveat.
Recorded roles; CS/gold/XP at 10/15 minutes; complete bottom-lane duo matchups	Original targets, separate finite-label denominators, four-champion keys, ADC CS, duo gold/XP and complete ablations	Physical lane positions, lane swaps, roaming and interventions remain unknown.
Sparse sharing, shrinkage and uncertainty	Regularized champion/duo terms, canonical matchup residual shrinkage, low-support groups, single-game residual intervals and series-level error-difference intervals	No fabricated counter-coefficient confidence intervals; cross-year interval coverage is not guaranteed.
Separate co-selection, same-team and opposing-team relations; control patch, teams, strength and single-champion baselines	Independent co-selection; five global models; patch categories and major/minor versions, region, format and pre-game Elo; negative results retain fallbacks	Unknown formats may leave residual confounding. All relationships are adjusted associations, not causal counters.
Professional data first, with limited comparable ranked auxiliary data; no player-champion win-rate/KDA bonuses	Independent transfer validation covers 2,493 ranked games. Gold benefits are not stable, so the current contribution is zero. M2 features exclude personal champion win rates and KDA.	Per-game ranked queue and rank are unknown; the data is not claimed to be entirely Master or higher.
Queries by patch, champion, candidate role and lineup; support/provenance and team-tendency interface	Unified JSON API; marginalization over feasible joint roles; current draft prefix and pool provenance; historical team context	The default client roster is not an official restriction list. Caller pools are not independently verified by the project; legal probabilities or T1 lane preferences are not fabricated.
Temporal/whole-series validation, deduplication, scripts, parameters, structured results, visualizations and coverage reports; preserve M1	Grouped partitions, completed labels, fixed replay, hashes, complete ablations and this report; M1/M3 files remain unchanged	2026 data has already been viewed and is retrospective only. M4 integration and future unseen windows remain subsequent work.

The delivery covers the module, validation, interface and reporting requirements of issue #15. Missing data remains explicit in the contract; not all historical official rules or restriction lists have been recovered. Production ranked weight is zero, unselected relationships fall back, and personal champion win-rate/KDA bonuses are excluded. Next steps are M4 integration and validation on a new time window.

Query examples

Frozen API requests and responses. This website presents historical research; live step-by-step draft prediction belongs to future M4 integration.

Example 1 · descriptive_pool_association

{
  "request": {
    "module": "co_selection",
    "patch": "26.02",
    "draft_format": "full_fearless",
    "picking_side": "Blue",
    "series_game_number": 1,
    "selected": [
      {
        "side": "Red",
        "champion_id": 268
      },
      {
        "side": "Blue",
        "champion_id": 61
      }
    ],
    "bans": [
      {
        "champion_id": 54,
        "phase": 1,
        "side": "Red"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 115,
        "phase": 1,
        "side": "Blue"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 84,
        "phase": 1,
        "side": "Red"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 126,
        "phase": 1,
        "side": "Blue"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 68,
        "phase": 1,
        "side": "Red"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 110,
        "phase": 1,
        "side": "Blue"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 804,
        "phase": 2,
        "side": "Blue"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 56,
        "phase": 2,
        "side": "Red"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 12,
        "phase": 2,
        "side": "Blue"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 111,
        "phase": 2,
        "side": "Red"
      }
    ]
  },
  "response": {
    "schema_version": "m2.relationships.final.v1",
    "model_version": "m2_final_v1",
    "status": "descriptive_pool_association",
    "patch": "26.02",
    "format": "full_fearless",
    "source_release": "m1-final-2026-10-11",
    "available_from_utc": "2026-01-01",
    "max_training_label_time": "2025-08-31T23:28:13+00:00",
    "ranked_weight": 0,
    "source": "whole existing professional archive; unknown rules retained as unknown performance context",
    "relationship_support_scope": "Pooled admitted professional training archive, including unknown formats; not same-patch/same-format evidence",
    "format_training_games": {
      "unknown": 10468,
      "classic": 209,
      "full_fearless": 2055
    },
    "interpretation": "Adjusted association; never causal counter strength",
    "missing_context": [
      "physical_lane",
      "lane_swaps",
      "jungle_interventions",
      "support_roaming"
    ],
    "evaluation_status": "Retrospective 2026 diagnosis; no new blind test claimed",
    "module": "co_selection",
    "score": null,
    "availability": {
      "type": "client_roster_only",
      "source": "https://ddragon.leagueoflegends.com/cdn/16.2.1/data/en_US/champion.json",
      "independently_verified": false
    },
    "official_legality_verified": false,
    "candidate_pool_complete_by_caller_declaration": false,
    "normalization_scope": "exact supplied or default client candidate pool, not inferred complete official legal space",
    "mask": {
      "current_pick_number": 3,
      "phase": 1,
      "excluded_ids": [
        54,
        61,
        68,
        84,
        110,
        115,
        126,
        268
      ],
      "prior_game_exclusion_applied": true
    },
    "selected_weight": 0.5,
    "unsupported_training_heroes": [
      11,
      17,
      28,
      33,
      35,
      37,
      55,
      105,
      122,
      141,
      161,
      166,
      200,
      233,
      360,
      420,
      904
    ],
    "scores": [
      {
        "champion_id": 12,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.04323554781882104,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 543,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 28
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 526,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.039906962209449476,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 557,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 23
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 497,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.03468659708492761,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 463,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 21
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 799,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.033266105242735884,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 491,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 18
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 145,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.03296270188423809,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 420,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 21
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 42,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.030759935128783483,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 470,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 16
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 202,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.028192668677093857,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 341,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 19
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 78,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.025001114577614704,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 317,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 16
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 201,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.024790793663337644,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 352,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 14
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 5,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.024589548717798764,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 608,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 7
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 111,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.02435186049958367,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 420,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 11
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 518,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.023474492186564777,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 298,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 15
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 498,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.022993698755121087,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 255,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 17
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 62,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.02279834978941852,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 403,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 10
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 893,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.02030392462924975,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 392,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 8
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 897,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.019967047428916657,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 315,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 10
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 14,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.019316611119552716,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 358,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 8
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 89,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.018779482170145148,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 379,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 7
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 56,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.018451608714730623,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 149,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 19
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 236,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.018019478580274192,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 220,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 12
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 15,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.01797470798566681,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 167,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 16
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 81,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.016993137722538795,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 477,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 4
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 58,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.015912653178137344,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 250,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 8
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 80,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.01583764360927459,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 363,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 5
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 150,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.01507943867122139,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 169,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 11
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 888,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.01465284557528172,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 214,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 8
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 432,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.01428756657408202,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 113,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 15
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 254,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.01380476781815102,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 407,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 3
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 21,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.013765420503942654,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 335,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 4
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 516,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.013379525156608493,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 180,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 8
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 48,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.01263489877826951,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 182,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 7
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 22,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.01185796348769136,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 185,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 6
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 266,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.011653534120844357,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 156,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 7
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 887,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.011625441596118795,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 307,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 3
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 57,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.011306745909877097,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 198,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 5
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 113,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.011201395311834235,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 369,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 2
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 235,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.010937592470903885,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 122,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 8
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 24,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.010809728514479169,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 219,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 4
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 59,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.010237075191443878,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 140,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 6
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 221,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.01017766825661003,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 106,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 8
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 429,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.010080373383263843,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 193,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 4
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 83,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.009994023270702753,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 190,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 4
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 72,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.009766758443278872,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 298,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 2
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 3,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.009600981734539422,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 290,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 2
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 43,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.008739226741842668,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 122,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 5
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 163,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.008644632268090573,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 513,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 222,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.008509127493684744,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 98,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 6
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 79,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.008374347103172457,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 95,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 6
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 64,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.006670302922090962,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 89,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 4
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 950,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.006148360267730959,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 212,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 1
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 103,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.005650965840619517,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 335,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 51,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.005544350873789314,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 81,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 3
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 13,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.005482782333458222,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 325,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 112,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.005230507072716277,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 310,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 804,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.004904526361564539,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 64,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 3
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 777,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.004894140058393686,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 290,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 76,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.004538135810319866,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 132,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 1
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 267,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.004536652140453018,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 55,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 3
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 117,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.004283345688015168,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 71,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 2
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 164,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.004283345688015168,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 71,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 2
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 18,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.00376892897903698,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 97,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 1
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 517,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.003531853650387197,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 209,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 1,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.0034141251953742906,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 202,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 53,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.0032564618162981584,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 42,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 2
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 31,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.003135402502735688,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 39,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 2
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 77,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.0029244495697907306,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 34,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 2
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 147,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.002806046938111557,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 21,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 3
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 901,
        "relative_pool_probability": 0.0027840096215232,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 57,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 1
        },
        "fallback": "historical_context_and_prefix"
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        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 55,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 105,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 122,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 141,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 161,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 166,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 200,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 233,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 360,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 420,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      },
      {
        "champion_id": 904,
        "relative_pool_probability": 1.6818350716129506e-05,
        "training_pick_opportunities": 0,
        "support_by_prefix_hero": {
          "61": 0
        },
        "fallback": "smoothed_unseen_prior"
      }
    ],
    "uncertainty": "Descriptive weights normalized over this exact masked pool; unseen priors are explicit, not measured synergy or calibrated next-pick probabilities",
    "team_preference_interface": "Optional team selects a historical context prior; no claim of preference for winning lanes"
  }
}

Example 2 · incomplete_role_matchup

{
  "request": {
    "module": "lane",
    "patch": "26.02",
    "draft_format": "unknown",
    "unit": "bot_duo",
    "selected": [
      {
        "side": "Red",
        "champion_id": 268
      },
      {
        "side": "Blue",
        "champion_id": 61
      }
    ]
  },
  "response": {
    "schema_version": "m2.relationships.final.v1",
    "model_version": "m2_final_v1",
    "status": "incomplete_role_matchup",
    "patch": "26.02",
    "format": "unknown",
    "source_release": "m1-final-2026-10-11",
    "available_from_utc": "2026-01-01",
    "max_training_label_time": "2025-08-31T23:28:13+00:00",
    "ranked_weight": 0,
    "source": "whole existing professional archive; unknown rules retained as unknown performance context",
    "relationship_support_scope": "Pooled admitted professional training archive, including unknown formats; not same-patch/same-format evidence",
    "format_training_games": {
      "unknown": 10468,
      "classic": 209,
      "full_fearless": 2055
    },
    "interpretation": "Adjusted association; never causal counter strength",
    "missing_context": [
      "physical_lane",
      "lane_swaps",
      "jungle_interventions",
      "support_roaming"
    ],
    "evaluation_status": "Retrospective 2026 diagnosis; no new blind test claimed",
    "score": null,
    "supported_role_mass": 0,
    "role_scenarios": 6,
    "unknown_role_priors": [],
    "missing_scenarios": [
      {
        "weight": 1.5700271353023218e-06,
        "status": "incomplete_matchup"
      },
      {
        "weight": 0.001165745147961974,
        "status": "incomplete_matchup"
      },
      {
        "weight": 0.0013418498583050512,
        "status": "incomplete_matchup"
      },
      {
        "weight": 0.9963235197915005,
        "status": "incomplete_matchup"
      },
      {
        "weight": 1.5700271353023218e-06,
        "status": "incomplete_matchup"
      },
      {
        "weight": 0.001165745147961974,
        "status": "incomplete_matchup"
      }
    ],
    "reason": "Missing counterpart or unsupported role remains unknown; no final lineup/future pick lookup"
  }
}

Example 3 · historical_association

{
  "request": {
    "module": "global",
    "patch": "26.02",
    "draft_format": "unknown",
    "selected": [
      {
        "side": "Red",
        "champion_id": 268
      },
      {
        "side": "Blue",
        "champion_id": 61
      }
    ]
  },
  "response": {
    "schema_version": "m2.relationships.final.v1",
    "model_version": "m2_final_v1",
    "status": "historical_association",
    "patch": "26.02",
    "format": "unknown",
    "source_release": "m1-final-2026-10-11",
    "available_from_utc": "2026-01-01",
    "max_training_label_time": "2025-08-31T23:28:13+00:00",
    "ranked_weight": 0,
    "source": "whole existing professional archive; unknown rules retained as unknown performance context",
    "relationship_support_scope": "Pooled admitted professional training archive, including unknown formats; not same-patch/same-format evidence",
    "format_training_games": {
      "unknown": 10468,
      "classic": 209,
      "full_fearless": 2055
    },
    "interpretation": "Adjusted association; never causal counter strength",
    "missing_context": [
      "physical_lane",
      "lane_swaps",
      "jungle_interventions",
      "support_roaming"
    ],
    "evaluation_status": "Retrospective 2026 diagnosis; no new blind test claimed",
    "module": "global",
    "variant": "champions",
    "selected_variant": "champions",
    "experimental_override": false,
    "relationship_enabled": false,
    "score": null,
    "complete_relationship_coverage": false,
    "score_unit": "Blue-minus-Red interaction log odds; partial lineups are not win probabilities",
    "pairs": [
      {
        "champions": [
          268,
          61
        ],
        "type": "enemy",
        "adjusted_log_odds": null,
        "role_support_min": 0,
        "role_support_max": 0,
        "supported_role_mass": 0,
        "uncertainty": "No calibrated relationship confidence interval; sparse/unseen role pairs use neutral model fallback"
      }
    ],
    "role_scenarios": 6,
    "unknown_role_priors": [],
    "uncertainty": {
      "sampling_confidence_interval": null,
      "low_support": true,
      "role_marginalization": "Historical training priors conditioned on feasible same-side roles; no final lineup lookup",
      "unseen_patch": true,
      "feature_min_training_games": 20
    },
    "fallback": "context_and_single_champions"
  }
}

Example 4 · unknown_format

{
  "request": {
    "module": "co_selection",
    "patch": "26.02",
    "draft_format": "unknown",
    "picking_side": "Blue"
  },
  "response": {
    "schema_version": "m2.relationships.final.v1",
    "model_version": "m2_final_v1",
    "status": "unknown_format",
    "patch": "26.02",
    "format": "unknown",
    "source_release": "m1-final-2026-10-11",
    "available_from_utc": "2026-01-01",
    "max_training_label_time": "2025-08-31T23:28:13+00:00",
    "ranked_weight": 0,
    "source": "whole existing professional archive; unknown rules retained as unknown performance context",
    "relationship_support_scope": "Pooled admitted professional training archive, including unknown formats; not same-patch/same-format evidence",
    "format_training_games": {
      "unknown": 10468,
      "classic": 209,
      "full_fearless": 2055
    },
    "interpretation": "Adjusted association; never causal counter strength",
    "missing_context": [
      "physical_lane",
      "lane_swaps",
      "jungle_interventions",
      "support_roaming"
    ],
    "evaluation_status": "Retrospective 2026 diagnosis; no new blind test claimed",
    "score": null,
    "reason": "Unknown rules never use guessed Classic/Fearless exclusions"
  }
}

Downloads and reproduction

Acceptance and scope ↧Complete validation ↧Lane error intervals ↧Cross-role error intervals ↧Query requests and responses ↧Input sources and hashes ↧Full text report ↧

Complete model, query code and reproduction instructions ↗